13-2; -16.94pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Brooks Koepka 50  16th
Francesco Molinari 65  6th
Martin Kaymer 70  69th
Patrick Reed 110  22nd
Adam Hadwin 130  30th
Koepka is clearly a player in form and a better player than a year ago, but a record of mc-35th in his two previous appearances due not suggest that he has yet mastered the peculiarities of this Pete Dye course
Finishes of 6th and 7th in his last two visits suggests that Molinari has (relatively) mastered this course, but I would still price him higher than these odds against thiis field when his best finish in a PGA Tour event is 3rd
Kaymer has fared better on the PGA Tour and he did win this event in 2014, but for all his new-found consistency this year it is in securing top-30 finishes rather than being contending for titles
In his first 54-hole lead for three years, Reed struggled last week and finished 12th; that doesn't bode well as he moves onto this week and a course on which his record reads mc-24th-mc
Hadwin's form has certainly cooled since March when he won the Valspar Championship and he has yet to break 70 on this course, so he is a player to oppose at these odds

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Daniel Berger 46  65th
Adam Scott 46  6th
Justin Thomas 150  mdf
Chez Reavie 150  56th
Si-Woo Kim 290  1st
Ranking outside the top-100 for driving distance and driving accuracy over the first two days, it is easy to see where Berger needs to improve over the weekend and he will struggle to make up the six-shot gap to the leaders unless he does play much better
That gap is seven shots for Scott which is about par for such a player who hasn't finished in the top-10 here for ten years
Thomas did finish 3rd here last year and had been in good form, but he finished rd2 in 43rd position and nine shots off the pace so I would price him at double these odds
Reavie is the closest of the selections in 10th place, but he is still five shots off the pace, has a best finish of 60th on this course and this is only his third cut made in 10 starts so he should struggle to retain his current position
This is the 15th start in the last 16 weeks for Kim, but only his 5th cut made over that period; that is the schedule of a player struggling to keep his Tour Card and that adds even more pressure over the weekend as he starts it in 16th place

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 1pt

Patrick Cantlay 30  22nd
In 7th place and only four shots off the pace in a very open tournament heading into the final round, Cantlay warrants shorter odds than this. He may only be a Rookie, but he has been in very good form recently, finishing 2nd-39th-3rd-14th in his last four starts and his ball-striking has been very good so far this week - he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation

LAY 20pts liability

Emiliano Grillo 16  11th
William McGirt 230  22nd
Lucas Glover 260  6th
Bernd Wiesberger 390  12th
Apart from the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this is the first time that Grillo has shown any form this year - he needs to have shown more consistency and thus confidence in his green to be able to cope with the final round pressure of this event
It's a long way back for the 1st round leader after shooting 75 in rd2 and he is now six shots off the pace, but at least he should record his first top-40 finish here in five attempts
Glover is alongside McGirt in 13th place and while he continues to display good ball-striking stats, he underscores so I don't see him as a challenger from this position
I don't see Wiesberger challenging from a shot further back; he has played very well on the European Tour in the last month, but mc-49th on this course does confirm that this course is very unlike anything on his home Tour