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21-2; -16.77pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Kyle Stanley 60 1st
Billy Horschel 60 26th
Jimmy Walker 120 mc
C.T. Pan 120 mc
Wesley Bryan 140 46th
Bryson Dechanbeau 180 17th
Billy Hurley 190 63rd
Patrick Rodgers 200 22nd
Cameron Tringale 280 mc
Matt Every 350 mc
Kyle Reifers 470 51st
With just one top-5 finish on the PGA Tour in the last four years Stanley is not a player that I would price at 60; he struggled last week and with the short game being so important in the two recent events stages at TPC Potomac - which is definitely not Stanley's best part of his game - I think that he will struggle this week as well
Horschel's game is very similar - his scrambling and putting stats are poor and that is not a good fit for this course, based on past events here - so he is another that I think is more likely to miss the cut - for the third time in four events - than these odds suggest
The rest are players that are triple-digit odds whose odds are still too low in my estimation Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt David Lingmerth 2.36 5th
I would make him a little lower than this at just over evens, so there is some value here for a small play. He has played well so far this week as well as scoring well - he leads the field in strokes gained - tee-to-green as well as well as holding a good lead over the chasing pack - he is two shots ahead of Ogilvy in 2nd, Summerhays is 3rd and four shots back while the rest of the chasing pack is spread out with the 4th place players being five shots back and those in 10th place being eight shots back. He has shown that he can win from this position - he is 1-for-1 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour (2015 Memorial Tournament) and 1-for-1 when leading after 36 holes on the Web.com Tour (2012 Neediest Kids Championship) and he followed up his opening 65 with another 54 in rd2. Finally, it can be noted that his win on the 2012 Neediest Kids Championship took place on this course, the last time that TPC Potomac has been used on either the PGA or the Web,com Tour. LAY 20pts liability Marc Leishman 34 5th
Ricky Barnes 46 17th
Martin Laird 85 3rd
James Hahn 160 46th
Jason Kokrak 240 26th
Leishman is one of those players in 10th place and eight shots off the pace; in terms of World Rankings, he may be one of the leading players in this field, but he will need to play much better over the weekend if he is to close the gap on Leishman - he ranks 66th (of 119) in greens in regulation so far this weel
Barnes has played well this week and is two shots closer in 6th place, but his best finish in 24 starts this season is 18th so he is facing serious pressure to convert this opportunity in order to retain his Tour Card (he is 157th in the FedEx Cup) and that is even more difficult with such contention rust
Laird has struggled for form in the last five months and it looks to be a very difficult task to close the nine-shot gap to Lingmerth with his current struggles off the tee - he ranks 101st of 119 in strokes gained - driving so far thie week
The rest are players that are triple-digit odds whose odds are still too low in my book Pre-rd4 plays: LAY 20pts liability Charles Howell 28 2nd
Kevin Streelman 90 17th
Johnson Wagner 110 5th
Nick Taylor 190 29th
Michael Kim 210 35th
Bill Haas 360 13th
Howell's form appears to have returned this week after struggling for the last four months and even though he is 7th and only four shots off the pace, these odds are very low for a player who contends a great deal but never looks like winning - his last PGA Tour win was over 10 years ago
Streelman has shown good form recently and may secure his fourth top-20 finish in a row, but he is a long way back - six shots behind Lingmerth and in 12th place - and neither of his two victories on Tour came from this far down the leaderboard or this many shot back after three rounds
The rest are players that are triple-digit odds whose odds are still too low in my book
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