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11-3; +7.83pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Tony Finau 19 2nd
Happy to oppose the players at the top of the market in this first event on the 2017/18 schedule. Finau has good form, but needs to be much more convincing to warrant these odds. Finishes of 12th, 32d and 36th on this course confirm that he can contend, but not strongly on a course where driving (particularly length) is not of particular importance
Phil Mickelson 20 3rd
Mickelson is another who has experienced an upturn in form recently, but the last time that he finished in the top-5 in a strkeplay event was last summer and he hasn't won since 2013; that is hardly the profile of a player at these odds
Webb Simpson 27 17th
And another with an upturn in form during the Playoffs. His tee-to-green game should be a better fit to Silverado than either Finau's or Mickelson's, but he has missed the cut both times that he has played here. Even if he does maintain his form and play well this week, his putting is still far from the level needed to win under pressure on Sundays.
Zach Johnson 27 13th
Johnson's short game is better, but he has never competed in this event previously, let alone on this course, It has been over two years since he won on Tour and I would price him highest of these four. Pre-rd3 plays: BACK to win 20pts Brendan Steele 4.1 1st
A short price, but this if a field dominated by players competing on the Web.com Tour last month and the top of the leaderboard is rather spread out after 36 holes, plus he is only one shot behind Duncan. And he is playing the best gold of anyone so far this week - he ranks 1st for greens in regulation, 1st of strokes gained - off the tee, strokes gained - tee-to-green, and strokes gained - approached. Given that his record involves leading after each of the first three rounds in 2015 and winning the event last year, it is fair to say that this course suits his game and he looks the most likely winner at this stage. LAY 20pts liability Chesson Hadley 7.2 3rd
Opposing a player who shot 61 yesterday as it is very difficult to follow up such a round, let alone challenge for this event over the weekend from two shots back. His previous best on the PGA Tour was 64 and it was 63 on the Web.com Tour, so even though he has shown very good form on the Web,com Tour recently, this will be a very hard round to follow.
Tyler Duncan 8.4 5th
Duncan has been in good form recently and has been in the lead after each of the first two rounds, but his record when leading does not indicate that he will have a good weekend - he is 0-for-3 when leading 36 holes and 0-for-2 when leading after 54 holes. Those were on the Web.com Tour and this is new level of pressure to be leading on the PGA Tour as a rookie in the first event of the season.
Emiliano Grillo 30 28th
Grillo won this title two years ago when Steele struggled in the final round, but I can't see the Californian repeating that performance and Grillo is five shots behind him (and another shot behind Duncan) so I would price him at higher odds than this.
Chez Reavie 30 13th
Reavie is also five shots behind Steele and has also displayed little form in recent month, so I would price him higher than the available odds, plus he can't claim to have won here or even been a strong challenger in any of the three years that this course has hostd this event. Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 20pts Chesson Hadley 5.8 3rd
Closing out the Hadley play. He was two-over-par after three holes to carry on the trend of struggling after such a low round, but he recovered focus and form thereafter and is now in sole 2nd place, a shot behind Duncan. I would price him almost a point lower, so there is value here and he will be a very strong challenger if he can maintain the excellence of his short game today.
Tyler Duncan 7 5th
Also closing out the Duncan play. He retained his one-shot lead in rd3 and while his approach play wasn't as good as in the previous two rounds, he kept his scorecard competitive and is a shot further ahead of the favourite Steele than at the start of the day. I would price him a little lower given this particular field. LAY 20pts liability Brendan Steele 6.8 1st
Closing out the Steele play as well. He didn't look particularly convincing yesterday such a clear favourite and while he was clearly very strong over the first two days, I would price him about a point higher as he will need to play much better today to win.
Bud Cauley 7.6 7th
Cauley's best round of the week puts him in 3rd place alongside Steele, but he had shown little form heading into this event and had a best finish on this course of 50th. He has never won on the PGA Tour I will price him a little higher to win this week.
Graham DeLaet 16.5 5th
In 5th place and three shots off the lead, DeLaet is another who had shown little form either heading into this event or on this course. He leads the field in greens in regulation and strokes gained - approaches, so he is playing well, but he is another who has yet to win on this Tour and it has been eight years since he won on any Tour (BMG Classic, Southern Africa Tour).
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