9-1; +10.74pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Chesson Hadley 21  2nd
On the basis of form, Hadley deserves this price. He is the standout player with finishes of 10th-1st-2nd-46th-3rd in his last five starts. However, closer inspection reveals that the only poor finish in that sequence - 46th, Web,com Tour Championship - took place on Bermuda greens; none of the other finishes took place in either Southern States or on Bermuda greens. Going further back, his previous strong performances on the Web.com Tour have all come outside the Southern States and not on Bermuda greens: Price Cutter Charity Championship, Missouri, 3rd; LECOM Health Challenge, New York, 1st; Rex Hospital Open, North Carolina (in his home town, Raleigh), 2nd. Lucas Glover has called this "an old-school southern course" and that is not the type of course on which Hadley has been having such success this year and nor did he last year as he missed the cut here.
Jason Kokrak 32  7th
Kokrak is another big-hitting player to be opposed. He has finished 20th and 12th in his two previous visits, but was never really in contention as he didn't finish any of his eight rounds inside the top-10. And while he went to university and currently resides in Ohio, he did manage a top-10 finish in a Southern State last year in the Byron Nelson Championship, but those greens are Creeping Bentgrass whereas Bermuda grass appears across the rest of the course. That leaves another player whose record on Bermuda greens isn't great - and that is a real problem in an event characterised by low-scoring - and given that he didn't achieve any other top-10, or even top-15, finish on the PGA Tour last season, he is a player to oppose in this new season.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Ryan Armour 5.9  1st

Tyrone Van Aswegen 7.8  25th

Seamus Power 11.5  18th

Vaughn Taylor 13.5  10th

Aaron Baddeley 19  30th

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Ryan Armour 1.69  1st
This is new territory for Armour, he has never led a PGA Tour event after 54 holes and his best finish on this Tour is 4th, but he is an experienced player (aged 41, over 100 appearances on the PGA Tour as well as being a three-time Web.com Tour graduate) and he has won previously on the Web.com (2016 Panama Championship) and this field is much more akin to a Web.com event than a PGA Tour one. And then there is the five-shot gap to 2nd place. This has occured 22 times in the last 20 years with the leader going on to win 17 time - that's over 75% with makes these odds seem generous. The last time that the leader fails to convert a five-shot lead was J.B. Holmes (2015 Cadillac Championship), but that was on a windy day at Doral. The same could be said for Dustin Johnson's failure to convert a six-shot lead in the HSBC Champions earlier today. He has been swapping putters this week, so it was no surprise that he didn't hold anything. As Rose said post-round, "It was the perfect type of weather conditions to make a comeback. This is the type of day when you are playing with a lead, every hole seems difficult". The weather conditions are set to be very good today in Jackson with no wind, so this will be a much earier lead to defend. Looking at these factors and the chasing pack, I'd price him nearer 1.50, so will close out the earlier lay play to lock in a double-digit profit if he win.

LAY 20pts liability

Ben Silverman 27  7th
Silverman had a purple patch of form in July-August which saw him earn his PGA Tour Card this season via the 2017 Web.com Tour Regular Season money list, but he didn't achieve any other top-5 finishes on that Tour other than during that mid-July - mid-August period. Only making his 3rd appearance on this Tour and ranking only 33rd in greens in regulation so far this week, he looks an unlikely player to shoot a low enough score to put Armour under pressure.
Beau Hossler 27  10th
Hossler is alongside Silverman in 3rd place and six shots behind Armour, but he is much more experience on the PGA Tour. However, his best finish in 17 starts on this Tour is 29th, so this is certainly a career week. With a best finish of 19th in any of his last ten starts and, like Silverman, ranking much lower for greens in regulation this week than his leaderboard position, he is another that looks unlikely to be Armour's main challenger.