13-2; -0.11pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

John Huh 350  27th
One of the more accurate players on the Tour, this is a course that suits Huh's game and he has shot 63 here previously (2013), It has been over five months since he missed a cut, so he is steady as well so there is a good chance that he will be available at much lower odds than this during the tournament.

LAY 20pts liability

Russell Henley 75  13th
Meen-Whee Kim 240  mdf
Johnson Wagner 270  mc
Jerry Kelly 180  mc
Smylie Kaufman 170  mc
Henley won this event on his debut in 2013, but he has rarely looked like winning since that season so he can opposed at these odds which are based on that win rather than his play so far this season which sees him ranked 228th in driving accuracy - that is not a good number for this course
Kim is 126th in that category and failed to reach the final round on his debut last year - with just one top-5 finish last year, he is a very unlikely winner this week
And so is Wagner who has missed his last three cuts this season and his last four cuts on this course; he did win in 2012, but he is not playing anywhere near that level now
This is a course on which older players fare well and Kelly is no exception with finishes of 3rd, 6th and 9th in the last three years and he did win this event in 2002, but it would still be a surprise if he managed to convert a victory chance on this Tour, though he should be more successful on the Champions Tour this season
Kaufman leads the Tour in driving distance this season and that is not a good fit for this course so I can't see him featuring on his debut

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK 1pt:

Tony Finau 90  20th
Justin Thomas has dominated this event so far, creating history on both days, but the only time that a player held a 5+ shot lead after 36 holes on the PGA Tour last year - Jhonattan Vegas, Barbasol Championship - he shot 72-72 over the weekend and finished 4th. Given that Thomas won last week, the last two days should have been very draining, so it is quite conceivable that he will be caught by the field by the end of today's round. Finau lies in 6th place, only three shots off 2nd place, and finished inside the top-10 last week, so these odds could appear rather large is Thomas' lead does shrink significantly today.

LAY 20pts liability

Pat Perez 440  69th
Chad Campbell 490  mdf
Cameron Smith 260  27th
Charles Howell 70  8th
Jamie Lovemark 220  4th
Satoshi Kodaira 320  49th
Henrik Norlander 420  20th
Whereas Finau won on Tour last year and is in 6th place, there is value in opposing players who haven't won on the PGA Tour at all or for a long time and who are well down the field given the nature of the leaderboard. Although he won last year, Perez is one of these - he is well down in 34th place, so it is very difficult to see him making up the 12-shot deficit
Campbell is a shot closer and did shoot 62 yesterday, but the last time that he secured a top-5 finish was in 2012
Another shot closer is Cameron Smith, but that is still ten shots off the pace and he will need to hit a lot more fairways if he is to shoot a low score over the weekend
Howell is the closest of those opposed in 6th place and eight shots off the pace - he has a decent record here but it has been 10 years since he won a PGA Tour event despite being in contention many times
Lovemark is a shot back in 13th place, but ranking 84th in strokes gained - tee-to-green, his ball striking is clearly not strong enough to challenge the lead
Kodaira has a good record on the Japan Tour, but he was MDF in this event last year which was his only previous PGA Tour start, so I don't expect him to play as well over the weekend
Finally, Norlander lies nine shots off the pace and ranks 140th (of 144) in strokes gained - off the tee, so he will need to improve that part of his game significantly if he is to give himself any opportunities of shooting low scores over weekend

Pre-rd4 play:

LAY 20pts liability

Justin Rose 36  2nd
It was a slow start for Thomas yesterday - he opened with eight straight pars which included a 13-foot par-saver at the 7th hole - but a two-putt birdie on the par-5 9th hole settled him and he moved away from the field to now hold a seven-shot advantage over Zach Johnson and eight-shot advantage over Rose in 3rd place. But given that Rose ranks 43rd in strokes gained - approach to the green, it is clear that he is not playing well enough to shoot the score needed to catch Thomas. Over the last 20 years, there has been 9 occasions when a leader has held at least an eight shot lead and the leader went on to win on every occasion. I expect today will be no exception.