11-1; +41.46pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Jordan Spieth 6.4  7th
In the first year of the Playoffs (2007), Tiger Woods was #1 ranked in the FedEx Cup standings ahead of the Tour Championship and won the final event. Since Tiger, no other player has repested the feat: since 2008, the leader of the FedEx Cup standings has finished 22nd-2nd-25th-22nd-10th-22nd-4th-10th-6th. The leader in the FedEx Cup standings is the player in the best form during the Playoffs and this year is no exception, but the pressure of defending the FedEx Cup lead has resulted in relatively poor finishes in this 30-player event. Spieth has had two very good performances at East Lake, but also two bad performances, so with the pressure of leading the FedEx Cup, I would oppose him at these odds.
Dustin Johnson 10.5  17th
Johnson is an example of the 'oppose the FedEx Cup leader' angle. He was undoubtedly the best player at the time 12 months ago, was leading the FedEx Cup and leading the Tour Championship (alongside Kevin Chappell after 54 holes). His closest rivals in the FedEx Cup race couldn't catch him - Reed, 2nd in the FedEx Cup was 20th after 54 holes; Scott, 3rd in the FedEx Cup was 14th after 54 holes, and Day, 4th in the FedEx Cup had withdrawn from the event. However, he shot 73 and finished seven shots behind McIlroy who won the event and the FedEx Cup. Apart from the first Playoff event, he has looked a very long way from that form and his best finish in seven attempts here is 5th.
Rickie Fowler 13.5  26th
Easy to oppose Fowler as he again showed last week why he is such a consistent high finishes on this Tour, but fails to convert his chances to the same degree as other players in the World top-10. A record of 23rd-8th-12th in his three previous visits suggest that he will contend less than usual on this course so he is the third player at the top of the market that I am happy to oppose.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 20pts  * Note change of staking strategy to provide consistency across BACK and LAY plays *

Paul Casey 8.2  5th
Casey is yet again in contention - he has finished in the top-5 in two of the three Playoff events and in four of his last seven starts - and he has finished in the top-5 in all three previous visits to East Lake. It may be a congested leaderboard behind the three leaders, but I think that there is value here in backing him to convert this chance with all the pressure on Thomas heading into the weekend

LAY 20pts liability

Justin Thomas 5  2nd
These are short odds on Thomas to win. He is one of three leaders and there are 14 players within three shots of each other at the top of the leaderboard - that's almost half the field - so any bad holes will be very costly. He may only be in the joint lead, but he is player with all the pressure as he is #1 in the Projected FedEx Cup rankings, so I would price him a little higher
Jon Rahm 8.8  7th
Rahm is one of four players just a shot behind and he has finished in the top-5 in all three Playoff events, but this par-70 course is not one normally suited to long-hitters and this is his course debut. He has the ability and the form to contend, but I think that someone more experienced will win this event
Justin Rose 9  10th
Rose is certainly experienced and has turned around a disappointing season with swing changes to alleviate pressure on his back - he has top-10 finishes in all three Playoff events - and he does have a good record at East Lake, but these odds look too short for someone whose return to form is so recent and against such a crowded leaderboard
Jason Day 22  17th
Day dropped back to 11th after three straight bogeys late on in his round and given that his greens in regulation and strokes gained - approaches stats have been fairly average - 19th and 17th (of 30) respectively so far - I don't see him as the player to jump out of the crowd and lead this event

Pre-rd4 plays: 

BACK to win 20pts

Xander Schauffele 6.8  1st
There's a five-shot gao between Casey and the 4th place players, so his main challenges should come from Kisner and Schauffele and I think the latter is the better player and price to hedge with. He leads this event in strokes gained - off the tee and strokes gained - tee-to-green, so his ball-striking is better by no-one this week and it is only two months since he won the Greenbrier Classic. There is a big step up in class this week, but if Casey is the latest player to falter under the pressure of leading the FedEx Cup projections, Schauffele looks a good hedge

LAY 20pts liability

Kevin Kisner 5.7  3rd
Backing Shauffele and opposing Kisner of the two closest challengers. Kisner leads this event in strokes gained - around the green, but will need to improve his ball striking stats if he is to challenge his playing partner. Given that his form has been very poor in the Playoffs until this week and his record here reads 28th-26th (of 30), it is surprising to see him in contention. With a record of 0-for-2 and 0-for-3 when in 2nd place after 54 holes, he looks the player to oppose at the top of the leaderboard
Brooks Koepka 22  6th
Koepka is one of those in 4th place and five shots back, but, as with opposing Rahm yesterday, this is not a course that particularly helps long-hitters and he hasn't really looked like winning since the U.S. Open. He is a player that can certainly quickly close a five-shot gap, but his ball-striking will need to be much better than so far this week
Patrick Reed 34  13th
Reed is alongside Koepka and shares a similar record in never having finished in the top-half of the leaderboard here and having indifferent ball-striking stats so a sustained momentum that reverses this five-shot gap does not look particularly likely.