17-2; +5.10pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK 1pt

Jason Day 16  mc
Day has finishes of 2nd-2nd-4th-9th-8th in the last six years of this event and has shown a return to form recently with finishes of 2nd-15th in his last two starts, so he is an obvious choice for this event. But behind that upturn in form is the improved health of his mother which had been such a concern at the start of the year and he has admitted that motivation was not at its highest, but he has been much more positive in interviews recently talking about increased momentum and confidence. Returning to the State of his Major win, should be an added reason to feel positive this week and I think that he will go very close.

LAY 20pts liability

Hideki Matsuyama 40  2nd
Louis Oosthuizen 50  23rd
Kevin Chappell 90  23rd
Billy Horschel 100  mc
Matthew Fitzpatrick 120  35th
Martin Kaymer 130  35th
Lee Westwood 140  55th
Brandt Snedeker 150  9th
Graeme McDowell 220  mc
Si-Woo Kim 270  13th
Tommy Fleetwood 280  4th
Jordan Niebrugge 360  35th
Since winning the Phoenix Open in the first week of February, Matsuyama has recorded a top-10 finish
Oosthuizen's odds have shortened considerably this week, but they are now too low for a player who has shown lots of form recently but not looked like converting those chances
Chappell has enough form this year to warrant these odds, but his two top-10 finishes in Majors have been from off the pace; he hasn't played well enough when in contention
Horschel is another with form which brings down his odds but his only top-10 finish in a Major was four years ago
Fitzpatrick is another with form, albeit on the European Tour, but his driving is a weakness in his game and that will be significant this week
Kaymer hasn't won since the 2014 U.S. Open and hasn't secured a top-15 finish since February
As Jason Day said in his interview, once a player starts complaining about the course, "it's one less guy you have to worry about at the start of the week"
Without a top-10 finish in over four months and mc-48th in his last two starts, Snedeker's form will need to improve to just make the cut
McDowell may be a former U.S. Open champion (2010), but he is without a top-10 finish this year
Kim won the Players Championship in impressive form, but his form this year has otherwise been extremely poor
On the back of two missed cuts, Fleetwood looks a very unlikely player to contend this week
It's a big jump from the Mackenzie Tour Canada where Niebrugge has finished 2nd-34th in the last two weeks

Pre-rd4 play:

BACK 1pt

Brian Harman 6.4  2nd
It certainly isn't easy to be leading the U.S. Open with one round to play, but since the turn of the century the U.S. Open champion has been either 1st or 2nd with one round to play in 12 of 17 occasions. He may not have a good record in Majors, but he played extremely yesterday when starting the day in the lead, hitting 12/14 fairways and 14/18 greens in regulation. He has won twice previously on Tour, including the Wells Fargo Championship, so he can convert these chances and there is an absence of previous Major winners in the chasing pack. It will be difficult to lead today, but I would price him at least a point a lower.

LAY 20pts liability

Rickie Fowler 6.2  5th
Patrick Reed 29  13th
Brendan Steele 120  13th
J.B. Holmes 240  12th
Sergio Garcia 470  21st
As good as Fowler was in rd1, he has struggled with his ball-striking in the next two rounds and this price is based on his name; at two shots back and his inability to hit greens in regulation over the last two days, I'd price him a little higher than this
Reed is four shots back after a 3rd round 65 in a round in which he hit less greens than in rd2 when he shot 75; he is unlikely to have such a hot putter today and should revert back to his form that has been so inconsistent recently
Five shots back but 2nd in putts per round shows that it is not his ball-striking that has put Steele on the fringes of contention, so I would oppose him in this situation with no winner of the U.S. Open being outside the top-8 in any of the last 20 years
That also points to opposing Holmes who is a shot further back and only hit 10/18 greens in regulation yesterday and also Garcia who is a further shot back and has yet to break 70 so far this week