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8-8; +11.78pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK 1pt Henrik Stenson 14.5 1st
Bill Haas 26 mdf
Jason Dufner 30 14th
With so many of the leaading players skipping this week, it hard to ignore Stenson whose record on Donald Ross courses (East Lake, Plainfield, Oak Hill, Oakland Hills, Pinehurst, etc,) is second-to-none and has better current form than anyone else in this field
Haas' form is not as good, but five consecutive top-25 finishes on this course, including three top-7 finishes in that spell, auggests that his performances should see an upturn this week
Dufner has already won this summer (Memorial Tournament) and with only Stenson and Kisner ahead of him in the World Rankngs in this week's field, that should suggest value at these odds LAY 20pts liability Kevin Kisner 17 42nd
Ryan Moore 28 24th
Webb Simpson 29 3rd
Bud Cauley 36 42nd
Kisner has a good record on this course, but it is hard to see him playing well this week after leading the U.S. Open for so long last week only to finish 7th
Moore is a former winner (2009), but his performance at the PGA Championship was his first top-25 finish since April, so there isn't enough form to warrant these odds
Simpson is another form winner from a long time ago (2011) whose form suggests that his game is a long way from winning, so I can't justify his odds being less than 30 as well
These odds also look very short for Cauley who has secured 10 top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour, but not one of them was either 1st or 2nd; he may contend, but struggles to convert Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Vaughn Taylor 29 50th
Shane Lowry 30 7th
Anirban Lahiri 48 28th
Russell Knox 60 28th
Taylor's play has been very good this week - he ranks 3rd in greens in regulation and 2nd in strokes gained - tee-to-green - and he has the experience to be able to compete at the top of this congested leaderboard
Lowry may be two shots further back in 9th place, but he ranks over 100 places higher than Taylor in the World Rankings and also has all the experience necessary to remain competitive when the pressure increases over the weekend
Alongside Lowry is Lahiri is a seven-time winner on the European and Asian PGA Tours; he finished 2nd in the Memorial Tournament so has shown that he can compete at this level
Knox is another multiple winner on Tour - two PGA Tour wins - and that is important over the weekend in this high-pressure, final event before the Playoffs; he finished 5th in the Bridgestone Invitational against a much stronger field, so should be value at these odds and only five off the pace LAY 20pts liability Ollie Schniederjans 15.5 2nd
Kevin Na 19 4th
Hunter Mahan 40 16th
It has been four months since Schniederjans secured a top-25 finish, so I wouldn't price him this short in 4th place with Stenson and Simpson ahead of him
A shot further back is Na who has a very impressive 30 top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour, but only one win - evidence that he is likely to contend over the weekend, but fall short of converting his chance
Mahan missed the cut or been MDF in seven of his last ten starts and has just once top-25 finish since November 2015, so it is hard to see him being competitive over the weekend Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Webb Simpson 5.7 3rd
Kevin Na 7.4 4th
A couple of hedge plays given that Stenson leads, but he has three players just one shot behind him. Simpson has a strong attachment to this event - the Charlotte resident used to come to this event as a teenager and played his college golf at nearby Wake Forest and it was his first win on Tour so he named his third child Wyndham. Such a strong home field factor can turn into added pressure over the weekend, but he looks the most likely challenge of the chasing pack
Na continued to play well when in contention yesterday and even though this had been predicted and that he would still fall short,, these odds are enough to warrant a hedge against other throwing away the chance to win and Na being victorious by default
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