5-4; -4.46pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Justin Rose 17  (15)  3rd
Admittedly, Rose was poor on Sunday when starting the day as favourite to win the Valspar Championship, but his pairing looks flat all day and that is also due to Conners struggles from the 1st hole onwards and hype around Tiger being in contention. The media attention and course noise centred around the group ahead, so it was an unusual day to be in a final round final pairing. At the end of the day, it was a very strong performance from Rose over the whole week and now he is playing on a course on which he has a much better course history - finishes of 2nd (2015), 3rd (2011), 8th (2006), 9th (2016), and 13th (2017). With a weaker field that last week and Rose's performance last week, he would have been expected to have been much lower than last week's BACK odds of 21, but Tiger dominates this market and makes Rose better value odds.

LAY 10pts liability

Tiger Woods 8.4 (44)  5th

Much has been written about Tiger's performance last week, but for all the video clips of his putt on the 17th hole, Tiger's putter was stone cold when in final round contention - he ranked 57th and lost 0.95 shots to the field in strokes gained - putting in the final round. It is great that he is back in contention, even it means the media coverage becomes rather unbalanced, but it will take longer before he can get anywhere near to the level where he was once. That means single figure odds are an over-reaction despite his course history (and it has been five years and one significant course renovation since he last competed in this event).
Jason Day 13  (15)  22nd
Day was a wire-to-wire winner two years ago and he has finished of 1st and 2nd in his two starts this year so would have been a deserved favourite if Tiger wasn't playing. But he won in 2016 through very aggressive play that paid off, whereas the two other victories since the course renovation have been won in very different styles. Day ranked 6th in driving distance and only 29th in greens in regulation when winning, whereas Every (2015) and Leishman (2017) ranked only 34th and 26th in driving distance, but crucially 2nd and 1st, respectively, in greens in regulation. This stat should be crucial this week and, despite his form, Day ranks 101st on the Tour in greens in regulation this season (Tiger ranks 174th).
Rory McIlroy 19  (33)  1st
It is a stat that doesn't look good for McIlroy either - he ranks 185th in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour this season. Given his form since starting his 2018 PGA Tour schedule, I'm surprised that his odds aren't higher and they are only a couple of points higher than last week when he missed the cut.
Rickie Fowler 19  (20)  14th
Fowler's price has shortened considerably during the week and he has moved from a player on my shortlist to back to one that I will oppose that these odds. He has one top-10 finish (3rd, 2013) in six attempts and his form this year has been a long way short of the level reached in 2017. He was a short-price favourite for the Honda Classic and missed the cut, and looks to have returned to his problem of not winning enough for a player ranked since the World Top-10.

No pre-rd 3 plays. Had been tempted to LAY Henrik Stenson, but his price has drifted overnight and is no longer value for this play. 

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts 

Bryson DeChambeau 8.2  (4.4)  2nd
I'd expect shorter odds on DeChambeau who will once again play in the final pairing with Stenson. He performed very well yesterday under the pressure of being co-leader - he hit 15 of 18 greens in regulation and only had a cold putter to blame for the finishing the day one behind the Swede. Ranking in the top-3 this week for both strokes gained: off-the-tee and strokes gained: approaches (Stenson is 18th and 8th respectively), he is playing well enough to win and these odds don't reflect the fact that he has already won on the PGA Tour (2017 John Deere Classic).
Ryan Moore 21  (14)  5th
Another playing extremely well tee-to-green is Moore who leads in the strokes gained: tee-to-green category this week. He is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour and is only three shots off the pace in 4th place, so is a likely challenger in today's final round.

LAY 10pts liability

Henrik Stenson 2.94  (3.75)  4th
Stenson is a decent front-runner - he is 2-for-4 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour and 7-for-13 when leading after 54 holes on the European Tour - and he does have finishes of 8th-5th-3rd-2nd on this course between 2013 and 2016, but he is not the player that he was during that period. He won the Wyndham Championship last year, but it was only added at the last minute as he was set to lose his PGA Tour Card for failing to play the minimum number of events as he would not go far in the Playoffs. His form over the past year has been patchy and he missed the cut last week. He did lead this event, but his best stats are for putting and his ball-striking stats have not been those of someone leading an event. I would have laid him yesterday, but definitely will today with the chasing pack closer and containing multiple event winners on this Tour.
Patrick Reed 65  (90)  7th
Reed produced a Sunday charge last week and should have secured a playoff with Casey but for his final green issues. He could certainly do the same again, but this time he is five rather than three shots back and he starts the final round in 10th rather than 5th place. With the quality of players ahead of him, I'm happy to lay this price.