|
4-1; +1.95pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK to win 10pts unless stated Brian Gay 29 (26) [3pts] 6th
Worth a small play from those amongst the market leaders. He is in good form with four top-20 finishes in his last seven starts and Billy Horschel (43rd) is the only other player in this field who is in the top-50 in the FedEx Cup rankings (Gay is 48th). Gay did finish 3rd in this event last year, but that was on a different course, but this course should still suit the straight-hitting Gay. According to local Tour player, Josh Teater, "it's not overly long, the par-fives are very scoreable" and he also remarks that there are certain holes that make finding the fairway a necessity. LAY 10pts liability unless stated Billy Horschel 14.5 (27) 2nd
The top-ranked player in terms of the FedEx Cup ranking and joint market leader, but he is a player who plays particularly well in short bursts and that occured in April when he finished 5th-11th-1st in consecutive weeks. He has not been near that form since and, with a new course being played and lower-ranked players than Horschel competing at Carnoustie, these odds are plenty low odds to oppose him at this stage of the event.
Chris Kirk 14.5 (21) 40th
The same applies to Kirk whose recent form has been better than Horschel's, but he hasn't looked like winning for the first time in over three years. Four times he has been inside the top-10 at the start of the final round so far this year, and every time he has finished the day lower down the leaderboard. His odds are too short.
Joel Dahmen 22 (34) 15th
In terms of form, none can match Dahmen - 2nd and 5th in the last two weeks, but don't lose sight of the fact that he finishes 7 and 8 shots off the pace, respectively. He never looked like a likely or comfortable challenger on either occasion and it's quite a leap to be 150/1 one week to being 3rdfavourite the following week.
David Lingmerth 32 (38) [3pts] 15th
With just four top-50 finishes and no top-10 finishes this year, Lingmerth is an easy player to oppose to small stakes this week. He is languishing in 143rd in the FedEx Cup standings so is under pressure to earn a lot of points this week given that his exemption from winning the Memorial Tournament has expired.
|
TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
-
Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the
market going in-play;
-
Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
|
