7-4; +9.00pts

After another loss last week (Joakim Lagergren) when the lay price was only one tick away from the maximum odds advised for the lay, I'm changing my staking plan. No more will it be 'to win 10pts / lay liability 10pts' regardless of how marginal the selection is, the stakes/liability will be up to a maximum of 10pts, based on the number of ticks from the BF price and min/max advised price in brackets.

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Jordan Spieth 6.0  (5.4)  [6pts]  21st
An obvious selection in a field lacking depth. The Tour moves this week to a new course and one unlike any other on the regular PGA Tour - this is a U.S. links course where placement off the tee and accuracy of second shots will be very important. That fits Spieth game well, particularly as he is a course member so his advantage over the other making their first acquantaince with this course is very large. He is sounding very positive at the moment and a lukewarm putter should see him win this eevnt.
Hideki Matsuyama 22  (15)  16th
Matsuyama's form isn't great, but a venue in which course management is key should be a good fit, particularly if scrambling is as important as usual on a link-style course. Comparisons have been made with Erin Hills and he finished 2nd there last year in the U.S. Open, so I would price him at lower odds than this.
Marc Leishman 22  (19)  [4pts]  2nd
Leishman finished 27th at Erin Hills last year and, like most Australian players, should be well-suited to a links-style course. Two top-10 finishes in his last five events suggest that he is not too far from the level that saw him win two PGA Tour events in 2017.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Adam Scott 23  (38)  9th
Scott may be another Australian with an impressive record on links course, but he has fallen down the World Rankings to 65th largely because of putting woes. He has improved somewhat in that department having recently gone to the long putter, but it is 11 months since he recorded a top-10 finish so I am happy to lay him at this price.
Sergio Garcia 24  (36)  [9pts]  mc
And lay another player with putting issues. He won this event two years on the old course and while his links pedigree is good, his form figures of mc-mc-mc-70th suggest that he shouldn't be priced as 5th favourite this week.
Jimmy Walker 24  (44)  6th
Walker played well last week and even, briefly, threatened Webb Simpson's lead on Sunday, but it has still been two years since he won a Tour event and his very poor tee-to-green stats this season suggest that he will not have the control necessary to score well this week.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Marc Leishman 2.66  (2.28)  [6pts]  2nd
Topping up the earlier Leishman play to the full 10pts staked. It is tough to follow up a course record, but he did so with a good all-round performance yesterday to shoot 66 and reach 15-under-par after two rounds. While his lead is down to one shot, the chasing pack have been stretched out with such a fast start by Leishman - only two players are within three shots of the Australian and of those players, Aaron Wise and Brian Gay, Leishman is by far the better player. He is only 1-for-4 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, but 1-for-1 when he has sole lead after 36 holes (2017 BMW Championship), so I think there is value in these odds despite the tournament only half-complete.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Kevin Na 21  (24)  [3pts]  6th
Na is in a group of three players who are four shots off the pace, but this is an impressive achievement for a player whose finishes in the last three months read: 36th-52nd-mc-mc-mc-46th. Given that form, he doesn't look a likely contender over the weekend so is opposed to small stakes.

Pre-rd4 plays

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Aaron Wise 2.80  (2.60)  1st
Tied with Leishman, four shots clear of 3rd place and with the top of the leaderboard still spread out, I would price Wise at lower odds to convert. Leishman may have set the course record in rd1, but Wise has played the better gold over the three days: he ranks 1st in greens in regulation (Leishman 6th), 1st in strokes gained - approaches (Leishman 17th) and 2nd in strokes gained - tee-to-green (Leishman 20th). He may not have Leishman's World Ranking (99th to 16th), but he is 2-for-2 when leading after 54 holes (both on the Web.com Tour), so he has a good chance of winning today.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Marc Leishman 2.02  (2.08)  [3pts]
A small offset play as I think Leishman's odds are a little low given the situation outlined above. Wise looked the better player when in the lead yesterday and Leishman's record when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour is only 1-for-2. That sounds like these odds are correct, but his win (2017 BMW Championship) came when he had a five-shot lead at the start of the final round; his loss came when he was sharing the lead at the start of the day as he is today. He finished four shots off the pace on that occasion (2017 Dell Technologies Championship).
Matt Jones 38  (46)  [4pts]
Jones is one of two players in 3rd place and he is playing in the final grouping, but he has never won in the six occasions that he has starting the final round inside the top-3 on the PGA Tour and he averages in excess of 72 in the final round in those six situations. With his stats this week well behind those of Wise, he looks an unlikely winner and his primary task this week is to maintain his current position as he stands 185th in the FedEx Cup standings and so is in danger of losing his Tour Card for next season.