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8-0; +11.67pts Pre-tournament plays: BACK to win 10pts unless stated Dustin Johnson 6.4 (4.8) 1st
In the context of this event, a missed cut last week at Carnoustie is not a bad result. It was a very different course and for those who played the full four rounds, it was a gruelling affair. Prior to that event, he had finished 8th (Memorial Tournament), 1st (St Jude Classic) and 3rd (U.S. Open), so he has been playing like a World #1 and his last three visits to Glen Abbey have yielded finishes of 2nd-2nd-8th. He can be aggressive this week when he couldn't last week and he fully warrants the short odds given the course and this field. LAY 10pts liability unless stated Brooks Koepka 14.0 (16.5) [5pts] mc
Koepka's aggressive strategy worked at times last week, but he was ultimately it was frustration that was the inevitable result. This course is much more suited to his game, but four rounds at Carnoustie should have an effect this week so he worth opposing to limited stakes. Pre-rd3 plays: LAY 10pts liability unless stated Kevin Tway 9.2 (11.0) [6pts] 17th
Worth opposing the leader to limited stakes. He has never been in this position after 36 holes on either the PGA or the Web.com Tour with a previous best position of 5th after 36 holes on this Tour. He should have Dustin Johnson applying some pressure very early in this round.
Byeon Hun An 12.5 (13.0) [1pt] 2nd
An has been playing well this week and did finish 2nd in the Memorial Tournament last month, but these are a little too low on him to convert from 4th place.
Joaquin Niemann 13.5 (14.0) [1pt] 37th
Another who has been playing well so far this week and recently, but he also another who looks to be just short of what needed to win on this Tour.
Johnson Wagner 30 (34) [2pts] 29th
Wagner is closer to the lead than Niemann, but starting the week in 137th place on the FedEx Cup standings, he is already under a lot of pressure and he hasn't played well from tee-to-green so far this week - 140th in strokes gained - off-the-tee and 86th in greens in regulation
Ian Poulter 34 (46) [6pts] 12th
These odds are too short for a player in 10th place with the World #1 ahead of him. He has been playing well recently without challenging for a win.
Tommy Fleetwood 46 (60) [6pts] 6th
Fleetwood is far more likely to win given the opportunity, but he has found it difficult to match last year's form with so many commitments across both sides of the Atlantic. Six shots back in 23rd position, his price is based on reputation rather than his leaderboard position or ball-striking stats this week.
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TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
-
Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the
market going in-play;
-
Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
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