8-3; +6.68pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Jon Rahm 11.0  1st
Rahm's price was a full point lower yesterday, but is worth backing now at the higher price. He is a class above the rest of the field in this event - Webb Simpson is 2nd in the market and he ranks 38th in the World Rankings compared to Rahm who is 3rd - and these generous fairways and courses set up for attacking golf should suit his style of play. Needless to say, when the gulf in class with the rest of the field is so large, easy courses tend to be a leveller, but he showed two weeks ago that he was close to his best after some clear signs of rustiness in the early rounds. That is the difference between this year and last year when he finished 34th on his debut - on that occasion, it was his first start of the year and he was an up-and-coming, but largely raw talent. He has made huge steps forward in the last 12 months and he is certainly the player to beat this week. 

LAY 20pts liability

Brian Harman 23  20th
There's no denying Harman's form - his last six finishes read 5th-8th-4th-3rd-3rd-4th - but he has held the 36-hole lead in each of the last two weeks on Tour and gone backwards in each round thereafter. He does have a good history in this event - 11th and 3rd in the last two years - but he still looks like a player for whom victory will be presented. It will be exhausting to have been in that position over the last two weekends and while he will have confidence in his game, it will surely have diminished in his ability to convert his chances.
Patrick Reed 26  mc
Reed is a former winner (2014) and also finished 12th last year, but when he won in 2014, he had already finished 16th at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and when he played well last year, he had already finished 6th in the earlier event. This week he is making his first start of the year so I am willing to oppose him at this stage of the event.
Phil Mickelson 29  mc
It is also Mickelson's first start of the year and he is also a former winner of this event (2002 and 2004), but that is a very long time ago and he can count just one top-5 finish in a strokeplay event in the last 18 months. He is tournament ambassador, but I wouldn't price him as one of the faouvrites to win this event.
Jason Dufner 32  36th
Dufner did finish in the top-20 in both the previous weeks and did win this event two years ago, so he is an obvious candidate for odds such as this and, to be fair, I only price him four points higher, but I still think that he is one of the favourites worth opposing. He played poorly when in contention in the final round two weeks ago and his top-20 finish last week was off-the-pace after finishing the 1st round in 65th position. The last 12 months have seen him record 13 top-20 finishes, but only two inside the top-10. A good player for match bets, but I'll continue to oppose him in pre-tournament markets.

No further plays until after the 3rd round and the course rotation is complete.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Andrew Landry 8.8  2nd
Landry seems overpriced given the leaderboard. He held a one-shot lead over Rahm at the end of rd2 and, while he dropped down to 2nd after Austin Cook's 64, he didn't drop a shot around the most-difficult course on the rotation and is the only player in the field not to have recorded a single bogey or worse this week. He is still a shot ahead of Rahm and only one shot behind Cook. Given that he already has finishes of 4th and 7th on the PGA Tour this season, it is not too surprising that he has remained in a strong position when in contention and I woudn't price him this high to convert.
Martin Piller 11.5  3rd
Two stats were common in the many online previews for this event - winners of this event score a lot of birdies and play the par-4s well - so there were ample previews available that suggested looking at players who perform well in these stats. Now that the tournament is 54 holes old, Landry leads the field in par-4 scoring and Piller leads the field in birdies so far this week. That suggests that, even if they weren't obvious choice before the event, they are obvious players at the top of the leaderboard now that there is only one round to play. Piller is 2nd alongside Landry and only one shot off the pace. He hasn't won on the PGA Tour, but he has won six times on the Web.com Tour and, like Landry, has a 4th place on the PGA Tour this season. And, as with Landry, I would price him several points lower.

LAY 20pts liability

Jon Rahm 4.1  1st
Closing out the pre-tournament play, which will still ensure an profit if he does win from 4th place and two shots off the lead. After looking in control for 36 holes, his game wasn't performing around the Stadium Course yesterday, hitting only 5/14 fairways and 9/18 greens in regulation. He is still the class player in this event and so heads the market despite trailing, but he's priced around half-a-point too low.
Austin Cook 4.4  14th
Cook leads this event and is looking for his second win this season. His victory at the RSM Classic in November was particularly impressive - he took a one-shot lead after rd2 and then moved away from the field with each of the next two rounds. But it is still difficult to follow up a low round - his 64 was lowest across all the courses yesterday - and this is only the second time that he has held the 54-hole lead in any Tour event. He did well last time, but, like Rahm, I'd price him about half-a-point higher.
Adam Hadwin 16  3rd
Hadwin showed that it was difficult to shoot the low round on Saturday and defend the tournament lead last year - he shot 59 on Saturday and finished 2nd on Sunday after leading by one at the start of the day. He is one of the highest-ranked players in this field and he has a very good record in this event (6th and 2nd in the last two years), but it's a congested leaderboard with 17 players within five shots of the lead, so these odds look too low for a player three shots back.
Grayson Murray 24  14th
Murray is alongside Hadwin and can't claim to match either Hadwin's form, recently or in the event, or his place in the top-100 of the World Rankings, so he fully warrants the higher odds to convert given the congestion at the top of the leaderboard.