4-1; +8.41pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Jon Rahm 15  2nd
Rahm is available at larger odds than the top-4 in the market presumably because he hasn't played in this event previously. But considering that he has risen from 766th in the World Rankings 18 months ago to now being ranked 4th, it is evidence just how much of an impact he has had since graduating from Arizona State and that has been without any notable experience on the courses being played each week. Last year he won three times across the PGA and European Tours and is making his first start since winning the DP World Tour Championship - a necessary break after an exhausting season, but he is now fully prepared for this event after caming to Hawaii early for a short holiday beforehand. His length off the tee will give him a small edge on this course, but much more important will be his, as with virtually all Spaniards, ability to play in wind. He showed that when winning both the DP World Tour Championship and the Irish Open last year, but wind was also a factor during last year's Wells Fargo Championship and Dean & Deluca Invitational where he finished inside the top-5 and within two shots of the winner both times.

LAY 20pts liability

Jordan Spieth 6.6  9th
Spieth has finished 2nd-1st-3rd here in three attempts, so the World #2 deserves to be favourite heading into this event. However, media attention on his off-course life (engagement to Annie Verret) and less-than-convincing displays in Australia and the Bahamas at the end of last year mean that I view these odds as too short at this stage of the event.
Rickie Fowler 8.8  4th
This is a close call for me as Fowler was very impressive in the Bahamas to overcome a seven-shot gap in the final round and win the Hero World Challenge by four shots over Charley Hoffman (Speith was 4th, two further shots back). However, he still doesn't convert enough chances to win when in contention (as opposed to shooting 61 in the final round to win from a long way behind), so I would price him a little higher than these odds.
Justin Thomas 9.6  22nd
Another player that I struggle to support at single-figure odds in this field. Thomas finished 11th in the Bahamas and 11 shots behind Fowler and now has the pressure of defending the title here. In the past 30 years, only two players (Stuart Appleby and Geoff Ogilvy) have successfully defended the title here even though the win guarantees them a place in the event the following year with a reduced-size field. Of the leading four players, I think that he is the least likely to win this week.
Hideki Matsuyama 15.5  4th
Matsuyama has finished 2nd and 3rd in his two previous appearances, but I think that his price is three points too low. His completely lost his form during the Playoffs and in the four events since the Tour Championship, he has finished 8, 18, 10 and 7 shots off the pace. Clearly he is still a long way from his best, so these odds are too short. 

No further plays for this event. It is both a limited-field event and very early in the season, so this should be an atypical weekend. I would normally be looking to oppose both Stroud and Vegas in this position, though.