7-2; +13.91pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Emiliano Grillo 13  (12.5)  50th
Heads the market and for good reason. He is the leading player in terms of World Rankings, has won on Tour previously (2016 Frys.com Open) when he went on to be Rookie of the Year only two seasons ago, and he is in very good form. I wouldn't touch him at a lower price given his inability to convert when leading after 36 holes in the Indian Open two weeks ago, but he is still the best player in this field.
Jim Furyk 29  (23)  mc
Furyk's 7th place finish in the Valspar Championship is enough to indicate that he can still play at a level that can win in this type of event. It was only his third start after a six month break, so his previous two finishes can be discounted and it is only 19 months since he shot 58 on Tour. A fair price.

LAY 10pts liability

Scott Peircy 22  (36)  60th
Piercy is well-fancied this week so his odds have falling and I'm happy to oppose him at this price. He has won two of these secondary PGA Tour events previously, but he missed the cut last week and his short game will need to be much better if he is to match the low-scoring expected to occur this week.

No pre-rd3 plays.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 10pts liability

Brice Garnett 1.95  (1.76)  1st
An untidy finish to his round sees Garnett's lead reduced to two shots after the third round, but that is ahead of rookie Connors who was very poor when last in contention and then the rest of the leaderboard is spread out until those in 6th place who are six shots behind Garnett. Of those within seven shots of Garnett, only Han ranks higher in the World Rankings, but that is because of his performance on the Japan Tour - his best finish on the PGA Tour is 39th (2010 Reno-Tahe Open). Garnett won twice on the Web.com Tour last season, including the Portland Open when he was joint-leader at the start of the final round, so he has better contention credentials that virtually everyone else at the top of the leaderboard, so odds-on looks to be the correct price from here.

LAY 10pts liability

Corey Conners 3.45  (3.55)  13th
His form can't be denied and he has played well this week - he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation - but the manner in which he shot 77 when leading the Valspar Championship will surely have an effect if he does catch Garnett. He has been a Tour player on the Canadian, Latinoamerica and Web.com Tour in recent years and didn't win an event on any of those Tours, so I'm happy to oppose him at slightly lower odds than I would have expected.
Tyler McCumber 29  (42)  19th
Monday qualifier McCumber normally plays on the Canadian and Latinoamerica Tours so his goal today will be to ensure that he finishes in the top-10 and so gets to play his 2nd PGA Tour event in Houston next week. Too big a step up in class of field to expect him to contend today.
Tom Lovelady 29  (34)  5th
The PGA Tour rookie has a best finish of 17th so far this season and a best finish of 3rd on the Web.com Tour. This price looks too short for such an inexperienced player who is five shots off the lead.
Seungsu Han 46  (55)  5th
As highlighted above, Han has a good record in Japan, plus he recorded a 4th place finish in the Oman Open earlier this year - his best finish on that Tour, but he is still six shots back and is very inexperienced on this Tour.
Harris English 95  (135)  5th
English has the experience on this Tour and did finish 8th in the Farmers Insurance Open in January, but it seems a very long time since he won twice in 2013. At 95th, he is the only player within seven shots of the lead who ranks higher than Garnett in the FexEx Cup (110th), but he is seven shots back and should be at a higher price.