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12-1; +2.80pts The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.
For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
Dustin Johnson 7th Pre-tournament LAY 9.2 (9.4) [1pt] The World #1 is the favourite for this event and he has won two of his last seven events, but his best finish in eight attempts here is 4th and that is subpar for a World #1 so I would price him a little higher. Pre-rd3 No play. The odds look correct at this stage. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Justin Thomas 24th Pre-tournament LAY 14 (16) [4pts] Thomas is the defending champion in an event in which no-one has done so successfully so far. He is certainly capable and is in good form, but he was the exception to the rule last year - six of the previous seven winners of this event had finished outside the top-25 in The Northern Trust the week before. Thomas finished 8th last week, but there is certainly a logic that it is difficult to maintain form when in final round contention throughout the six-week period from the Bridgestone Invitational to the third Playoff event. Pre-rd3 LAY 600 (730) [10pts] Having only just made the cut and now eleven shots behind the leader, Thomas should be very long odds to win this event. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Brooks Koepka 12th Pre-tournament LAY 14.5 (28) [10pts] Sitting on top of the leaderboard after two rounds last week, Koepka could have been the World #1 at the end of the week. Instead he struggled thereafter and finished 8th and he is still World #2. The same thing happened to Justin Thomas in the Spring. Koepka has finished mc-57th-18th on this course so far so I'm not convinced that this will be the week in which he reaches the top of the World Rankings. Pre-rd3 LAY 34 (80) [10pts] Seven shots back in 21st place, Koepka will need two really low round to be a serious challenger in this calibre of field, so I'd price him at higher odds. Pre-rd4 LAY 110 (200) [10pts] Will need to pass 15 places and make up six shots to reach the top of the leaderboard. Needs to be at higher odds given this challenge. Rory McIlroy 12th Pre-tournament LAY 17 (34) [10pts] This is a course suited to McIlroy's game and he has won twice here previously (2012 and 2016), but a missed cut last year, 50th last time out and just one win in the last 19 months are sufficient reasons for me to oppose him at this stage. Pre-rd3 LAY 36 (160) [10pts] McIlroy has struggled for accuracy off the tee (73rd of 98 in driving accuracy so far this week) and he has also struggled with his short game (82 in the strokes gained - around the green), so I don't see him as a likely challenger from 21st place and seven shots off the pace. Pre-rd4 LAY 17 (32) [10pts] Did play better yesterday and is now only four shots off the lead in 8th place, but he is still not playing as well as he is scoring - he ranks 35th in strokes gained - approaches (ranked 31st yesterday despite his low score) and 18th in strokes gained - putting (ranked 30th yesterday despite his low score). Will need to play better not just score well today to justify these odds. Jason Day mc Pre-tournament No play. His odds appear correct to me. Jordan Spieth 12th Pre-tournament LAY 23 (32) [8pts] He did finish 2nd here last year and traded odds-on during the final round, but he is not the player that he was 12 months ago. He keeps talking up his game and it is certainly better than six months ago, but I'll keep a watching brief before I change sides on him. Pre-rd3 LAY 19 (48) [10pts] Spieth may be 7th, but he ranks 49th (of 98) in strokes gained - approaches and 61st in strokes gained - putting so far this week. Those are not the game stats of someone likely to shoot a very low score and he will need to do at least once as he is five shots off the lead. Pre-rd4 LAY 19.5 (38) [10pts] Dropped back a place to 8th yesterday, though he is a shot closer to the lead, so as he was overpriced yesterday at these odds, he is the same today. Tiger Woods 24th Pre-tournament LAY 24 (29) [5pts] Woods hasn't played here since 2013 and while he has shown glimpses of his former game this summer, he hasn't looked convincing on the back nine on Sundays when in contention. Pre-rd3 LAY 65 (110) [10pts] He did play much better yesterday, he is still seven shots back in 21st place so he will need to two very good rounds to be a serious contender for this title. Pre-rd4 LAY 160 (210) [5pts] Made a little progress yesterday, rising to 16th place but that is still too far back to be a serious contender today. Ranking 47th in greens in regulation so far this week, he looks very unlikely to give himself a chance today. Jon Rahm 43rd Pre-tournament LAY 29 (40) [6pts] A year ago, Rahm was the leader after 36 holes only to be overtaken by Thomas' 63 in rd3. A year on and he missed the cut by six shots last week and for all his near-misses (four finishes of 4th or 5th in his last eight starts), he hasn't won since the Open de Espana in April so I would price him at higher odds. Pre-rd3 LAY 450 (600) [10pts] Nine shots off the pace, 33 players ahead of him on the leaderboard and struggling on the greens, I think that his odds should be higher. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Adam Scott 49th Pre-tournament LAY 36 (70) [10pts] Scott won the inaugural event in 2003, but that was a very long time ago and while he finished 5th in The Northern Trust last week, that was due to a career week on the greens. He ranked 1st for strokes gained - putting and it is only the second time in the last three years that he has finished inside the top-15 in that category in a PGA Tour event. Pre-rd3 No play. No lay odds available. Pre-rd4 No play. No lay odds available. Justin Rose 2nd Pre-tournament BACK 36 (19.5) [10pts] A missed cut last week and his price has jumped from 23 to 36. He had been in very good form prior to that missed cut and had a top-10 finish here last year. I still think that he is underpriced. Pre-rd3 BACK 5.1 (3.2) [10pts] Fell back to 2nd place yesterday having been the 1st round leader, but Simpson's record when leading after 36 holes (0-3 shot lead) is 0-for-9 and neither Hatton (also in 2nd place) or Fleetwood (sole 4th place) have won this Tour, so this is a great opportunity for Rose who is a proven winner on this Tour. Pre-rd4 BACK 6.4 (5.7) [5pts] Not his best round yesterday and he has dropped to 4th place, but he is only two shots behind a leader who has never won on the PGA Tour previously and in the one previous occasion that he led after 54 holes on the PGA Tour (2018 Quicken Loans National), he finished ten shots behind the winner. Rose's experience in this situation warrants shorter odds.
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