5-3; -26.62pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Jon Rahm 9  29th
With form figures of 1st-2nd-1st in his last three starts and a win in this event last year, Rahm is an obvious favourite this week. But this will be his first time defending a Tour title and, to add to the extra pressure this week, he has the chance to become World #1 if he wins this week. This is a question of price as I do not dispute his favouritism and I think that these added issues mean that a higher price is warranted at this stage of the event.
Hideki Matsuyama 22  29th
After his total loss of form in the Playoffs last year, Matsuyama has regained a little of his form over the last couple of months. He has recorded top-5 finishes in his last three starts - Dunlop Phoenix Tournament, Hero World Challenge and Sentry Tournament of Champions - which sounds as though he is competitive again, but that masks the fact that he finished 10, 7, and 10 shots, respectively, behind the winner. A course history of 16th-mc-mc-33rd also suggests that this price is too low.
Jason Day 23  1st
Day is another winner of this event - 2015 - but he has missed the cut in the last two years and this is his first start of the year so there is enough reason to be on the long side of this price. Add in the caddy factor - he split with his long-time caddie, Collin Swatton, near the end of last season and his is without his regular caddy, Luke Reardon, this week as he doesn't yet have a work visa - and is certainly a player to oppose this week.
Marc Leishman  26  8th
Leishman has a couple of runners-up finishes here, the last in 2014 and he was playing some of best golf of his career at the end of 2017, but his form has been rather underwhelming by those standards in 2018, so I would price him a little higher than this.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Jon Rahm 2.82  29th
Dave Tindall (betting.betfair.com) wrote at the start of the week that the very elite players appear able to rack up back-to-back wins. I didn't dount that all and laid Rahm merely on price, but the Spaniard has confirmed that he is one of those very elite players and will look at this leaderboard and not see any elite players until Jason Day who is three shots further back. Rahm will be in the final pairing with Ryan Palmer (World #205) and Luke List (World #147). He is only one shot off the lead, yet he hasn't even played particularly well off the tee this week, hitting only 50% of fairways, but the rest of his game is so good at the moment that he could win this event at a canter if he was more accurate off the tee. I still make him odds-against at this stage, but there is still value in these odds and will ensure a profit on the week if he does win.

LAY 20pts liability

Alex Noren 22  2nd
Noren is 5th and three shots off the pace, but hi stats are particularly good so far this week. He is also playing his first start of 2018 and his first start in this event, soI think that he is over-performing in terms of leaderboard position at this stage, but looks a player to oppose.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Ryan Palmer 9.2  2nd
It was a difficult final pairing with both Palmer and List shooting 73 and Rahm shooting 75, but he was under the most pressure as the player with a one-shot lead at the start of the day and he is now in 2nd-place on his own and only one shot behind Alex Noren who best finish in the U.S. is 10th in last year's Players Championship when had held the lead after rd1. Palmer has won three times on the PGA Tour and, while the leaderboard looks very congested behind him, I think that he should be a couple of points lower to win. 

LAY 20pts liability

J.B. Holmes 13.5  4th
Opposing Holmes who shot the low round of the day yesterday to jump 44 places to 3rd. It has been a long time since Holmes has looked like a potential Tour winner, even ignoring last year's Players Championship when he led at the start of the final round only to shoot 84 and finish 41st.