4-2; +11.14pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Jordan Spieth 8.2  (7.8)  [2pts]  32nd
Speith's price has fallen throughout the week and now only warrants minor interest. His record here reads 7th-14th-2nd-1st-2nd so he warrants interest this week, but putting is always important here and that is the weakest part of his game right now by some distance. His tee-to-green play is as good as it has ever been, so he does warrant interest albeit limited at this price.
Rickie Fowler 20  (14)  14th
Fowler returns to the event after a four-year absence and so satisfies the PGA Tour's 'strength of field' policy. Does this mean that he is just turning up and not committing to the event? That wasn't the case last time when played in the 2017 OHL Classic when many other leading players were enjoying their off-season - he finished 2nd, a shot behind Patton Kizzire. He does have a top-5 finish here (2012) and he come very close to winning this year, being the 36-hole co-leader at the OHL, and 36-hole co-leader and 54-hole leader at the Phoenix Open. This represents a good opportunity for him to win his first title of 2018.
Justin Rose 22  (14.5)  1st
Rose is another who returns after a lengthy absence and so satisfies the PGA Tour rule - he would normally be playing at Wentworth this week. His form is good and he is a good putter - he ranks 15th in strokes gained - putting, plus he is another who is not expected to simply turn up and go through the motions. I would have expected lower odds for the World #5 in this field, so there should be value if, as expected, his is fully committed to this event.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Jon Rahm 16.5  (19.0)  [5pts]  5th
Rahm's runner-up finish last year is atypical in terms of the Colonial indentikit winner as length off the tee has no particular advantage here. However, it must be remembered that he was in a golden run of form and his 2nd place finish would be his sixth top-5 finish in his last ten starts. That form and confidence is not as high this year with finishes of mc and 63rd in his last two PGA Tour starts, so he is worth opposing on this course.
Jason Dufner 34  (55)  [9pts]  mc
It's a mixed bag of results for Dufner at Colonial - he has finished 2nd (2012), 2nd (2014) and 6th (2016), but has failed to finish in the top-40 in any of his other six appearances. He does have two top-5 finishes in his last three starts (one was a team event), but his overall starts are poor and an ill-fit for this course. At these odds, it's easy to oppose a player whose pre-tournament Betfair lay odds have been 170 and 290 in his last two starts.

No pre-rd3 plays.

Pre-rd4 play:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Brooks Koepka 8.4  (18)  2nd
Koepka's finishes in the last month read mc-42nd-11th since he returned after a 15-week delay with a wrist injury. That progression shows that he is improving as he returns to the Tour, but it is still a big ask to return to full competitiveness in the final round of a tournament when he is playing in the final group. And it is not that he has been playing well this week either - he ranks 59th (of 78) in strokes gained - approaches (Rose leads this category), so it has been his short game that has saved his score this week. Rose has a four-shot lead and he has converted the win all six previous times that he has started the final round with a 3+ shot lead. I make Rose's odds shorter and Koepka odds longer.