8-5; -8.83pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Paul Casey 25  (15)  49th
A familiar selection having backed Casey last week. After being only two shots off the pace after day one, he still fall back when playnig Spyglass Hill on day two, but he finish 8th, his 12th top-20 finish in his last 13 starts. He has turned into a player who will always have a chance every week and that chance must be stronger this week than last. Whereas he hadn't played in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2002, he lost out in a playoff to James Hahn in this event three years ago. Given that he ranks 1st in strokes gained - tee-to-green, his game is a very good fit for this course and he should contend again.

LAY 10pts liability

Dustin Johnson 6.2  (9.6)  16th
Another course on which Johnson should win with ease - his finishes here read 2nd-2nd-4th-1st in the last four years. But, for all that he was impressive in Hawaii, he was lucky to finish as high as joint-2nd last week when starting the final round at odds-on and out-played by his playing partner, Ted Potter. That makes these odds too low for me.
Jordan Spieth 15  (17.5)  9th
Spieth's putting was better last week, but instead it was his greens in regulation stats that were poor. Such inconsistency within his game is not consistent with being 2nd-favourite and with a course record that reads mc-12th-4th-mc-22nd, it is clear that this is not his best course as these are below-par returns for a World #3.
Rory McIlroy 16.5  (32)  20th
The same can be said for McIlroy who played well in the Middle East last month on familiar courses, but missed the cut last week and finished 20th in his only previous appearance on this course. Again, these odds are based more on his ability than his form.
Justin Thomas 21  (25)  9th
Thomas doesn't have good course form here either - his three previous finishes at Riviera have been 41st-54th-39th. He has shown short bursts of form so far this week, but not enough to record a top-15 finish in any of his three starts, so is opposed at this stage of the event.
Phil Mickelson 30  (40)  6th
He recorded a second successive top-5 finish last week, but was again always looking as though he was just too far behind during the final round. This is another event in which he is a multiple-winner and so his odds remain low, but those events were in the previous decade and he has skipped this event in three of the last four years, finishing 34th and 13 shots off the pace on his return last year.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Ryan Moore 13  (15)  9th
Moore is a shot behind the joint-leaders, but I would price him at slightly higher odds given how congested the leaderboard stands. Any player that breaks out of the pack today will need good ball-striking skills and Moore hasn't displayed them so far this week - he ranks 81st in greens in regulation and 72nd in strokes gained - approaches - and is this high on the leaderboard because of a hot putter so far this week.
Bubba Watson 18.5  (36)  1st
Two shots further back is a multiple-winner of this event (2014, 2016) and his ball-striking has been very good - 3rd and 2nd in the above-mentioned categories. But just one top-5 finish in the last 23 months do not point to a player who will normally do well over the weekend from this postion.
James Hahn 32  (55)  14th
Another former winner playing well this week - Hahn won in 2015 and is a shot further back in 10th place. He did lose out in a playoff for the Sony Open in Hawaii last month, but hasn't really looked like winning again apart from that week. I would price him higher given the congested leaderboard.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 46  (50)  26th
Cabrera-Bello is alongside Hahn in 10th place and four shots off the pace. His ball-striking stats haven't been particularly strong so far this week. At #20 in the World Rankings, he is a very good player but hasn't looked like converting any of his chances on the PGA Tour yet,

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Patrick Cantlay 5.4  (3.65)  4th
Siding with local player Cantlay who holed from 54-feet on the final hole to get himself into the final grouping with Watson and Smith. He started the day as joint-leader and didn't have his best game on display, but through 54 holes he still lead the field in strokes gained - off-the-tee and greens in regulation, so his ball-striking is as good as anyone's on this ball-striker's course. With Watson's record of just 3-for-12 when leading at the start of the final round - the latest being a failure to convert in the 2015 Taiheiyo Masters (note that it is over two years ago since he has been in this position) - and Cantley already a winner this season (Shriners Hospitals for Children Open), I make Cantlay's odds shorter.
Tony Finau 9.4  (8.4)  2nd
Finau is a shot back in 3rd place and a little under-priced. He may not have won since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, but he has recorded ten top-10 finishes since the start of 2017 to show that he continues to give himself chances of winning again. Given the leader's difficulties in this position, he could certainly be the player to take advantage.
Cameron Smith 11  (11)  6th
In the final grouping and in 3rd place is Smith who has three top-20 finishes in four starts this year. For many, the prospect of being in a final grouping with Bubba Watson and a home player would be daunting prospect, but this is a player who won the Australian PGA Championship in December despite being constantly heckled by someone in the crowd with fake cough and shouts of 'don't choke' during his swings. If he can win in those situations, he can beat both his playing partners.

LAY 10pts liability

Graeme McDowell 17.5  (19.5)  26th
McDowell was the joint-leader at the start of the last round, but fell back to 3rd place and two shots behind Watson after not being as impressive tee-to-green as over the first two rounds: his strokes gained - tee-to-green was 33rd (of 76) yesterday, having been 14th and 1st (of 144) in the first two days. Given that he hasn't held a 36-hole lead since 2015, yesterday's performance wasn't surprising and I don't expect him to bounce back today.