8-1; -1.01pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Russell Henley 18  (28)  10th
With finishes of 5th place in each of the last two years and 6th last time out in the Travelers Championship, Henley heads the market based on current/course form. He did win the Houston Open last year - his first victory since 2014 - but these odds are very short for this player. At the Travelers Championship, he was available to back at 65 at the start of that event so that is quite a jump to these odds and tournament favourite.
Bubba Watson 20  (23)  [3pts]  13th
On form alone, Watson should be the favourite. He won the Travelers Championship two weeks ago in impressive style - his third win of 2018 - but he has yet to record a top-10 finish in four attempts here. This is an event in which outsiders perform particularly well, so I'm happy to oppose Watson to small stakes.
Phil Mickelson 24  (28)  [4pts]  65th
The same goes for Mickelson. His four finishes here read mc-mc-mc-20th and with the Open Championship only two weeks away and Mickelson already committed to playing in the Scottish Open next week as preparation, this looks like a week in which it won't matter a great deal if he doesn't make the weejend.
Joaquin Niemann 30  (48)  [9pts]  5th
These are the shortest odds that Niemann has received at the start of a tournament - previous lowest has been 38 to LAY in the St Jude Classic and Quicken Loans National. He does have the benefit of competing here previously - he finished 29th last year - but for all his impressive performances, he still hasn't managed to put together four good rounds in a week and finish in the top-5.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated 

Webb Simpson 3.55  (2.98)  47th
After a strong performance yesterday when it always difficult to follow up a 61, Simpson full warrants favouritism given the look at the top of the leaderboard - he ranks 10th in the FedEx Cup rankings, whereas the other six players within four shots of the lead are ranked 119th, 86th, 95th, 82nd, 139th and 132nd. Only Lahiri (2nd), Kokrak (4th) and Kim (5th) look safe in terms of keeping their Tour Cards for next year, the rest wil face enormous pressure this weekend to keep their current place on the leaderboard. Simpson, who won the Players Championship in May, is a class apart and has shown that so far this week, ranking 1st in strokes gained - approaches so far this week.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Anirban Lahiri 7.0  (7.2)  [1pt]  39th
Lahiri may be safe in terms of reaching the Playoffs, but it will be very difficult to follow up a 61. The odds a little lower than I expected.
Kelly Kraft 11.0  (12.5)  [3pts]  2nd
Kraft leads Lahiri and Simpson by one shot, but given that he ranks 119th in the FedEx Cup rankings, he will be under even more pressure than usual for the leader at this stage of the event. He has only led one other Tour event at this stage (2013 BMW Charity Pro-Am) and he finished 13th on that occasion. That was on the Web.com Tour, it is much harder on the PGA Tour.

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Xander Schauffele 4.9  (5.3)  [4pts]  21st
Schauffele is just one shot behind the two leaders who are both seeking their first win on the PGA Tour whereas Schauffele is the defending champion, so it is clear why he heads the market at the start of the final round. Not only did he win this event last year, but he also won the Tour Championship. However, he may not perform so well if he does catch the leaders early in the round - he has never led any Tour event after rd1, rd2 or rd3. Both his Tour wins has come from off the pace, at least two shots back, so this could be an unusual position even though he was a two-time winner last year. He has not been the best player so far this week - 14th in strokes gained - tee-to-green - so these odds seems short enough for him to be opposed to small stakes.
Harold Varner 6.2  (6.4)  [1pt]  5th
Opposed to even smaller stakes is Varner. His starting position is outside the top-125 in the FedEx Cup race so his primary goal today is to secure his playing rights for next year. That means added pressure for a player who best finish on the PGA Tour is 5th and starts the final round as joint-leader.