6-4; -11.65pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Rickie Fowler 11  (10.5)  mc
Fowler's odds climbed enough over the last day or so to reach the threshold for selection. He is in very good form, particularly for trading purposes. In his last five starts, he has finished 2nd in the OHL Classic (1st after 36 holes); won the Hero World Challenge; 4th in the Sentry Tournament of Champions; missed the cut in the Farmers Insurance Open; and finished 11th in the Phoenix Open (1st after 36 and 54 holes). Add in his recent course history - 6th in 2016 (1st after 36 holes) and 1st last year - and the fact that this is a much weaker field than recent weeks - no Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm or Jordan Spieth - and these odds are certainly fair for the faouvrite. With the move to Florida and Bentgrass greens, the winner will need to be good in the wind and with a putter, so Fowler fits the bill and could certainly provide an opportunity for a profitable trade-out after rounds two or three.

LAY 10pts liability

Justin Thomas 12  (15)  1st
Thomas' form has been below-par this year, not helped by caddy issues, so it is no surprise that his best finish of 2018 came last week (9th) when reunited with Jimmy Johnson. He does have a 3rd place finish here in 2016, but missed the cut in his two other visits, so inconsistency still appears to be key around Thomas this week and these odds are too short for someone in that category
Rory McIlroy 14.5  (18.5)  59th
Inconsistency is also a key descriptor of McIlroy this week - he finished 20th last week, having missed the cut the week before and while he has finished of 1st (2012) and 2nd (2014) here, he has also missed his last two cuts on this course. It has been 15 months since his last Tour win and while this is a weakened field, I'm not convinced that he warrants these odds.
Tyrrell Hatton 34  (48)  mc
Hatton did produce some very good form performances on the PGA in early Spring last year and that started with a 4th place finish in this event. He has certainly proved himself on the European Tour and now ranks #15 in the World Rankings, but hasn't bettered that 4th place finish in his 18 starts on the PGA Tour and WGC events, so I'd price him at higher odds at this stage of the week.
Tommy Fleetwood 36  (40)  4th
The same goes for the European Tour #1 player who is winless in 20 PGA Tour and WGC events. He finished 37th last week in his first start on the PGA Tour this year and has yet to play in this event, so warrants higher odds.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Louis Oosthuizen 20  (23)  24th
With a best finish of 49th in 2018 and a course history of wd-wd-mc-21st, it is a surprise to see Oosthuizen in 7th place at the cut. Given that he ranks 80th in greens in regulation and 96th in stroke gained - around the green, it is a further surprise to see him contending this week, so I'm happy to oppose him as he has clearly over-performed in terms of leaderboard position.
Thomas Pieters 23  (42)  13th
Similarly for Pieters who played well in his season-opener in Abu Dhabi, but has finished 32th and 68th since and missed the cut in his only previous appearance in this evet. His play this week has been much better than Oostehuizen's, but I'm happy to oppose him on this Tour where he is winless - he was leading after 54 holes in last year's Bridgestone Invitational, but finished eight shots behind Matsuyama.

Pre-rd4 plays: 

BACK to win 10pts

Luke List 5.8  (5.0)  2nd
It's a very evenly-spread leaderboard for those chasing the current leader, List - it may be congested around Tiger Woods who is seven shots back, but there are only eight players within five shots of the lead, including List. That makes these odds a little short for someone with a one-shot lead, though it is driven by Justin Thomas who is one shot behind. The odds on Thomas are a little too short to side with, so siding with List and Simpson to hold off the favourite. It wasn't going to be an easy day for List - he shot the low round of the day on Friday and held the joint-lead at the start of the day - but he played very well under that pressure and his only dropped shot occured because of a plugged lie in a bunker. He hasn't won on the PGA Tour previously, but he didn't fold completely when previously in this position - he finished 2nd in the 2016 Sanderson Farms Championship - and he was impressive yesterday, so I'll back him at these odds.
Webb Simpson 6.6  (4.4)  5th
Simpson already has a top-5 finish this season (Sony Open in Hawaii) and now lies joint-second and one shot off the pace with one round to play. His all-round game has been good this week and he is a four-time winner on this Tour, so he is a player who should remain in contention for much of the final round, even if List is a little more unpredictable in these situation.

LAY 10pts liability

Alex Noren 12  (24)  3rd
Noren has shown good form this year with finishes of 2nd-21st-16th, but his inability to take his chance to defeat Jason Day in the Farmers Insurance Open is a concern on his ability to convert at this level. His game has been good this week, but he has relied on his putting more than the rest of his game in terms of the strokes gained categories, whereas it is the rest of the game that is put under the most pressure in the final round. In 6th place and three shots back, I'd expect higher odds if Thomas deserves such favouritism.