6-6; -11.61pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Jordan Spieth 13.5  (9.2)  3rd
Presumably because it is the week before a Major, but I'm surprised that the odds on most of the market leaders aren't shorter. Spieth's putting has been a concern this season, but few will be trying as hard to get his game into title-winning shape this week. He has always been a great putter and none moreso than on the fast greens of Augusta National where he has finished 2nd-1st-2nd-11th in his four attempts. These week's course is set up to replicate Augusta National so I'm backing him to find his touch on these large, fast, undulating greens this week. He lost out in a playoff in 2015.
Rickie Fowler 14  (12.0)  43rd
Fowler was the first round leader last year before finishing 3rd - his third top-10 finish here in the last four years. He has been in decent form and held the lead during the third round of his last event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, before falling back to finish 14th. He remains fragile in the lead, but these odds are higher than expected and could easily be traded out over the weekend if he gets into contention yet again.
Justin Rose 14.5  (11.0)  52nd
No doubting Rose's form with top-5 finishes in his last two starts, though he could easily have won both. He was a victim of circumstance (Tiger-mania in the group ahead and paired with a very nervous Corey Conners in the Valspar Championship and looked a likely winner until McIlroy's incredible back-nine in the Arnold Palmer Invitational). He is keen to improve on two runners-up finishes in the Masters in the last three years and this event is a very good preparation for next week. Like Fowler, he skipped last week's event to focus on the Masters preparation.
Phil Mickelson 21  (13.5)  24th
Backing another player in form. Mickelson won his last strokeplay event - the Mexico Championship - having finished 5th-2nd-6th beforehand. He did play last week, but admitted that he wasn't fully-focused on that gruelling event, but this week will be different where he is a former winner (2011). Again, I would have expected lower odds.

LAY 10pts liability

Henrik Stenson 19.5  (22)  6th
The exception is Stenson whose odds are lower than expected. His course history includes three top-3 finishes (no wins) and he played well last time out, but he performance in the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational was surely disheartening. With the course set up to prepare for next week, a best finish of 14th at Augusta National in 12 attempts suggests that this set up does not particularly favour his game and his 'feast or famine' record on this course looks set to continue.

No pre-rd3 plays. 

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Beau Hossler 6.0  (4.8)  2nd
Hossler has been 2nd, 1st and 1st after each of the three rounds so far and while his game wasn't at its best yesterday when leading from the front, he found a way to score well and keep him at the top of the leaderboard by the end of the day. He has been in this position already this season - the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open when he finished two shots behind Cantlay - so he does have the benefit of experience in this position. I don't think Poulter will find it easy to follow up his low round and, with two shots to the rest of the field, I think there is value in these odds.

LAY 10pts liability

Ian Poulter 5.0  (5.1)  1st
Apart from the Masters angle - he was so unlucky not to get into next week's event via the World Rankings and now a win would get him there - there is the added pressure that Poulter hasn't won any Tour event since the HSBC Champions in 2012 and his only previous Tour win on an American course was in a matchplay event. He has been in this position previously on the PGA Tour, but is 0-for-2 and has failed to win when leading after 54 holes in any of his last five attempts. The last time that he won when leading after 54 was in 2010 (Hong Kong Open). It is marginal, but there is value in opposing Poulter at these odds
Paul Dunne 14  (15.0)  8th
It is also marginal with Dunne who lies 3rd and two shots behind the leaders. He finished 5th last week so is in good form, but his tee-to-green play has not been great - he ranks 59th in strokes gained - driving and 46th in strokes gained - approaches so far this week. He will need to play better if he is be a challenger for this title.
Jordan Spieth 16  (24)  3rd
Closing out the Spieth BACK play as the odds are far too low for someone in 13th place, four shots off the lead and putting as poorly as he is - four three-putts in the first eight holes and ranking 88th (of 90) in strokes gained - putting. I thought that this would be the week that his putting improved, but the confidence is still lacking.
Matt Kuchar 18.5  (27)  8th
Kuchar is a shot closer, but I don't see him winning for the first time in four years. His ball-striking has been poor and he is only inside the top-10 because of his short game. Another high, but winless finish looks likely for Kuchar.
Chesson Hadley 28  (28)  18th
Hadley's ball-striking stats have also been poor, particularly off the tee. He had a number of top-5 finishes at the start of this season, but hasn't looked like adding another recently. There is just enough value in these odds against him winning his four PGA Tour title since 2014.
Rickie Fowler 36  (50)  43rd
What a frustrating player Fowler is! The odds were just too high for me to close out the original BACK play yesterday and for a while that looked to be a good outcome, but not for long. Five shots back and in 17th place, he has far too many players to pass to make these odds a true reflection of his win probability.