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Betfair Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

John Deere Classic
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1-0; +4.40pts

 

No pre-tournament plays.

 

No pre-rd3 plays

 

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Michael Kim 1.44  (1.23)  [10pts staked]  1st
It's not just that he has a five shot lead, but none of the next ten players behind him are ranked within the top-100 of the FedEx Cup rankings so even if someone made a charge from the pack, there is little reason to expect them to cope well with leading the event. It's a similar story in terms of World Rankings - only Harold Varner (184th) is within nine shot of Kim and is ranked inside the top-200 in the World Rankings. Kim hasn't won on Tour, but he started yesterday's round with a three-shot lead and extended it to five by the end of the day with a very impressive finish to his round. Given that performance and the size of the lead, I'd price him at much shorter odds to win.

 



TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES

Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange market, there are two things to note:

  1. Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the market going in-play;

  2. Tips will focus only on those players near the top of the market.

    There is plenty of value in backing players at very large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in providing tips for these odds.


Odds of 2.0 or higher

All BACK plays will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.

So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is 10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are staked to win 1.25pts.

Odds of less than 2.0

All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY plays will be to win 10pts

 

The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.