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3-0; +2.42pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 10pts liability Jordan Spieth 12 (16) 3rd
The price is warranted for a player whose record here reads 2nd-1st-2nd-11th and finished 3rd last week, but those previousl performances here have been largely borne out of being the best putter on Tour. He ranked 1st in putting average in two of those four years, but he is not that putter that he was. He now ranks 145th on Tour in Putting Average and 185th in Strokes Gained - Putting. He had so many three-putts on the fast Augusta-like greens last week that he ranked 69th of 75 in Strokes Gained - Putting. He led the field in Strokes Gained - Tee-to-Green, but he can't win a Major, particularly on at Augusta National, unless his putting improves dramatically.
Rory McIlroy 14 (29) 5th
A win at Bay Hill has seen McIlroy move to second favourite. While he was very impressive on the back nine on Sunday, his form on the PGA Tour this season has been underwhelming apart from that one week and he didn't play particularly well in the Dell Technologies Match Play the following week. In nine attempts to win the Green Jacket, his best finish is only 4th (2015) when finishing six shots behind Spieth, so I don't see much to warrant these odds.
Justin Thomas 14.5 (15) 17th
In terms of form, no-one can match Thomas who is now the World #2. Victory (or maybe less) would see him take over top spot, but that pressure proves too much when he last had that opportunity (at the Dell Technologies Match Play). He is the winner of the latest Major, but the Masters is a very different type of event. Given that he ranks much lower in Strokes Gained - Putting (38th) than Strokes Gained - Tee-to-Green (6th), it may be easy to see why he has never broken 70 on this course. He warrants short odds based on form and ability, but I think these are a little too low given that they are competing at Augusta National.
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TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
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Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the
market going in-play;
-
Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
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