15-6; -9.74pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Dustin Johnson 15  (11.5)  [7pts]  8th
I think that there is value in backing Johnson at these odds. He has lost top spot in the World Rankings as his form has dipped from the level at the start of the year, but his most recent finishes of 10th-16th-17th are better than those of new #1 and market leader, Justin Thomas, and in his last event (The Players Championship) in which he finished 17th, he led after day one and was 3rd at the start of the final round, he is clearly close to winning again. He was also the first round leader here two years ago, missing out by only a shot, so he has good form here and with the link to Firestone (also in Ohio) established in terms of winners, it is notable that he won there two years ago.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Justin Thomas 14  (19)  8th
As pointed out above, Thomas' form isn't great for a World #1 and market leader - his last four finishes read 17th-mc-21st-11th. This will be his first event as World #1 and his form took a notable downturn when he could become #1 that week; it will be interesting to see how he fares now he is there. He did finish 4th here last year, but his previous figures had been 37th-mc-mc here and he has a best finish of 28th at Firestone, so I would oppose him as the market leader this week.
Rory McIlroy 19  (33)  8th
Fatigue from playing the Players Championship (Florida), the BMW PGA Championship (England) and now the Memorial Tournament (Ohio) is likely to be a factor given the strength of the fields each week. He did miss the cut at Sawgrass, and while he showed more form at Wentworth last week, it was the third time in three European Tour events this year that he has failed to convert a very good winning opportunity - in Dubai, he traded as low as 1.12 and last week he traded as low as 1.54, but was very poor on Sunday. I don't see him bouncing back this week.
Tiger Woods 22  (50)  23rd
Yes, he's close to winning again and this would be the perfect opportunity to do so as a five-time winner here. But his last three finishes read 32nd-55th-11th, so he is not that close to winning against a field such as this. I certainly wouldn't put him a single point higher than Jason Day who has been so impressive lately.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Jason Day 8.0  (9.2)  [6pts]  44th
The top-3 on the leaderboard looks to be priced about right or a little higher than I expected, so these lays are all players in 4th place or lower and at least three shots off the pace. Admittedly, there has beens a huge (three shot) advantage to those who started on Thursday morning and the top-three on the leaderboard all had the favourable draw and that makes Day's performance over the first two rounds all the more impressive as he teed off on Thursday afternoon. The worse weather conditions may account for part of his poor ball-striking stats so far this week, but these are still much worse than should be expected - 43rd in greens in regulation; 54th in strokes gained - approaches - so this is a very low price for someone without good ball control and three shots off the pace.
Justin Rose 11  (12)  [2pts]  6th
Rose did benefit from the better draw, but again this is a low price for a player a shot further back from Day. He has struggled off the tee this week and winning last week in England will surely lead to fatigue as he competes in Ohio this week. The odds are only marginally lower than I would expect.
Hideki Matsuyama 13.5  (16.5)  [6pts]  13th
Without a top-15 finish in his last seven starts, Matsuyama's odds look rather low given that he is three shots back. He has struggled with his game for eight months now and looked to be inconsistent yesterday. With that backdrop, I'd oppose him at these odds.
Byrson DeChambeau 17.5  (19)  [3pts]  1st
Another player in 4th place in this congested part of the leaderboard. Like Day, his ball-striking stats have been poor - 43rd in greens in regulation; 63rd in strokes gained - approaches - so I think there is value in opposing him at this stage.
Dustin Johnson 17  (17.5)  [1pt]  8th
Johnson was unfortunate with the tee-times and to be five shots back and in 14th place is a good performance with that handicap, however I think that he is a little underpriced so I will lay off one point from the earlier BACK play.
Henrik Stenson 23  (25)  [2pts]  13th
Without a top-40 finish in this event, Stenson is clearly over-performing in 9th place so far this week. He has had some good events, but failed to win recently, and while he may again fare well, I doubt this is the course on which he will get his first win of 2018.
J.B. Holmes 40  (55)  [6pts]  13th
Opposing another player in 4th place to limited stakes. He has been in poor form recently, has struggled tee-to-green this week and has just one top-10 finish in ten attempts on this course.
Bubba Watson 40  (85)  44th
Much further back in 14th place, I would price Watson at much higher odds. He has won a couple of times this year, but hasn't looked particularly competitive in the last six weeks or so. He will need to drive much accurately if he is make a significant move up this leaderboard.
Beau Hossler 50  (90)  [8pts]  44th
Ranking 61st in strokes gained - approaches and 79th in strokes gained - around the green, it is a surprice to see him inside the top-10 on the leaderboard. He hasn't really challenged for a title since losing the playoff for the Houston Open, so I would price him at higher odds given his ball striking so far this week.
Wesley Bryan 85  (90)  [1pt]  52nd
Justifiably large odds for a player in 4th place. He sits 166th in the FedEx Cup Standing after missing seven of his last nine cuts and while his win in the 2017 RBC Heritage means that he is not in danger of losing his Tour Card, confidence must be very low.
Si-Woo Kim 100  (270)  29th
Kim's form has been poor and he has a best finish of 74th on this course. Together with poor ball-striking stats, he is a player to oppose from 14th place on the leaderboard.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Patrick Cantlay 5.8  (4.5)  4th
Since 1996, the winner here has started the final round inside the top-3 in 17 of 22 occasions. Of the other five, the winner was 4th twice, 7th twice and 10th once. Only twice in those 22 events has the winner come from five shots back in the final round, so there is value in looking around the top of the leaderboard, particularly those in 2nd place. One of these is Cantlay who has already won this season (Shriners Hospitals for Children Open) and has shown great ball-striking ability this week, so important on Jack Nicklaus courses - he ranks 1st in strokes gained - approaches and 2nd in strokes gained - tee-to-green. His form was great heading into this event, but as a recent winner, he looks a strong challenger to DeChambeau.
Joaquin Niemann 7.8  (4.6)  6th
Playing in only his eight start as a pro, Niemann has certainly created a lot of attention with an 8th place finish in the Texas Open, 6th place in the Fort Worth Invitational and holding a share of the lead after each of the first two rounds. He has dropped back to 2nd, but would have retained the lead but for DeChambeau's birdie blixt over the last few holes. He doesn't look out of place at the top of the leaderboard and I would price him lower to end the week as a winner when he started as a tournament invite.
Beong Hun An 11.5  (9.6)  [5pts]  2nd
Dropping back a shot for a small play on An. Fatigue may be an issue as he played in the BMW PGA Championship last week - he won that event in 2015 - but his pedigree is very good and he has previously lost a playoff for a PGA Tour title (2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans), so I would price him a little lower

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Bryson DeChambeau 3.65  (4.9)  [7pts]  1st
Opposing the leader. This is an event in which the winner started the final day at the top end of the leaderboard, but only three times in the last eleven years has the winner been in the lead at the start of the day. DeChambeau has won a PGA Tour event previously - 2017 John Deere Classic - but that was a come-from-behind win; he has never previously started the final round in the lead on the PGA Tour. Ranking 19th in strokes gained - approaches suggests that others around him are playing better, so topping up this LAY play to the max 10pt stake.
Justin Rose 16  (21)  [8pts]  6th
Also topping up this LAY play to the max 10pt stake. He only hit nine greens in regulation yesterday, but found a way to keep himself in contention and started the final round four shots back in 6th place. He is certainly capable of winning from this position, but after winning the BMW PGA Championship last week and not looking at the top of his game yesterday, I think that he is overpriced.
Hideki Matsuyama 55  (110)  [4pts]  13th
Topping up one more existing LAY play with Matsuyama who is a shot further back and has slipped progressively down the leaderboard after leading on day one. He played poorly from tee-to-green yesterday and his game looks a long way from the heights of last summer.