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Betfair Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

The Northern Trust
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10-5; +0.07pts
 
The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.

For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
 
 
Dustin Johnson  11th
Pre-tournament
LAY 10 (11.5) [3pts]
It is not clear that this tree-lined course suits the longer hitters and his form figures here back that up - mc-9th-dnp. The odds seem a little short given that course setup and the quality of the field this week.
Pre-rd3
BACK 5.4 (3.65) [10pts]
In 3rd place, two shots off the lead and playing well - he leads this event in strokes gained - approches - I think these are very good odds on the World #1 to convert.
Pre-rd4
No plays. The odds look correct at this stage. 
 
 
Justin Thomas  8th
Pre-tournament
No play. The odds look correct at this stage.
Pre-rd3
BACK 18.5 (15.5) [6pts]
If he can improve his driving accuracy, which was particularly poor in rd1, he should certainly the four shot gap to the leaders so I think there is value in these odds.
Pre-rd4
LAY 75 (120) [7pts]
In 14th place and eight shots off the lead, his odds are too short. He did improve his driving accuracy yesterday, but not enough to be competitive and he is barely in contention. 
 
 
Jason Day  20th
Pre-tournament
LAY 15.5 (21) [10pts]
Day's form figures of 31st-5th-2nd on this course suggest that this course certainly suits his game/eye, but since his win at the Wells Fargo Championship he has struggled to convert his chances - he ranks 7th on Tour for Scoring Average, but only 73rd in Final Round Scoring Average, so these odds seem short enough on him to win
Pre-rd3
LAY 29 (46) [9pts]
Day has also struggled off the tee, but is a shot further back than Thomas in 17th place so he has farther more traffic to get through if he can improve his driving.
Pre-rd4
LAY 85 (130) [6pts]
Day is alongside Thomas and eight shots behind DeChambeau. He again struggled for accuracy off the tee and I would also price him as barely in contention.
 
 
Tiger Woods  40th
Pre-tournament
LAY 16.5 (24) [10pts]
Woods is another who has been getting himself into contention and even leads, but hasn't been able to convert his chances on the back nine on Sundays. Good driving will be necessary this week and that is not his strength at the moment.
Pre-rd3
LAY 530 (990) [10pts]
Woods may the weekend on the cut line in 67th place and is ten shots behind the leaders. I don't see how he can win from this position.
Pre-rd4
No play. No lay odds available. 
 
 
Brooks Koepka  8th
Pre-tournament
LAY 21 (30) [9pts]
Koepka is almost as erratic as Woods off the tee (166th in driving accuracy vs 175th for Woods) and that is not helpful this week. This is also his first start after winning the PGA Championship and for a player who has won three Majors, but only one non-Major PGA Tour (in 2015), there are going to be question asked of him around these types of event.
Pre-rd3
LAY 3.4 (5.1) [10pts]
63rd in driving accuracy and 49th in greens in regulation - these are not the playing stats of someone who warrants a position at the top of the leaderboard. He is scoring well, but his game isn't at the same level so he is an easy player for me to oppose at these odds despite his Major wins this summer.
Pre-rd4
LAY 32 (55) [10pts]
Not a good day for him yesterday as he fell six places to 7th and is now seven shots behind DeChambeau. It was a real struggle on the greens yesterday and his odds are too low for someone so far off the pace. 
 
 
Jordan Spieth  25th
Pre-tournament
LAY 22 (38) [10pts]
He keeps talking up his game, but he still doesn't look like winning any time soon. Another player ranked outside the top-100 in driving accuracy this season, so I'm happy to oppose him again.
Pre-rd3
No bet. His odds appear correct at this stage.
Pre-rd4
LAY 34 (85) [10pts]
As Koepka, he is seven shots off the pace in 7th place. Winless in over a year and not in control of all parts of his game this year, he looks an unlikely player to shoot the low score needed to close this gap. 
 
 
Justin Rose  mc
Pre-tournament
BACK 23 (14) [10pts]
He hasn't missed a cut in over a year and that year has seen him amass 17 top-10 finishes in 24 starts, including four wins. There appears to be no injury concerns at the PGA Championship, so I am surprised that he isn't priced lower.
 
 
Jon Rahm  mc
Pre-tournament
LAY 24 (25) [1pt]
As another player with a poor ranking for driving accuracy (143rd), he is another who is not suited by the course setup. His odds are higher than the others, so only opposing him to a small degree at these odds.
 
 
Francesco Molinari  mc
Pre-tournament
LAY 32 (36) [2pts]
With three wins in his last eight starts, his form is outstanding, but these odds reflect that. He has never played this course previously and missed the cut in each of the last two years of this event (at different courses), but I will also oppose him to small stakes.
 
 
Webb Simpson  28th
Pre-tournament
BACK 44 (38) [3pts]
A winner of the Players Championship and 2nd last week, he certainly has the form and credentials to win this week. He was 1st in driving accuracy when winning at Sawgrass and he will similarly need to drive the ball better than usual this week to be competitive, but worth a small punt at these odds.
Pre-rd3
BACK 80 (75) [1pt]
Speculative punt for tiny stakes as I think his odds should be slightly lower. A second round 66 sees him within five shots of the lead, so he is still very much in contention this week.
Pre-rd4
LAY 600 (660) [6pts]
In 20th place and nine shots off the pace, he fell back in rd3 and I don't see any realistic chance of him contending today. 
 


TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES

Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange market, there are two things to note:

  1. Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the market going in-play;

  2. Tips will focus only on those players near the top of the market.

    There is plenty of value in backing players at very large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in providing tips for these odds.


Odds of 2.0 or higher

All BACK plays will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.

So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is 10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are staked to win 1.25pts.

Odds of less than 2.0

All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY plays will be to win 10pts

 

The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.