9-4; -9.78pts

It's good to change approaches from time-to-time. It keeps you fresh when the golf season can be so long - there are typically only two weeks per year (one last year) when there are no Tour events with betting markets - and the Betfair market presents so many different ways to (hopefully) take advantage of your knowledge/numbers/hunches about a player.

The change now is to take the top-10 players in the market pre-tournament and offer tips based around backing/laying them pre-tournament, after round 2 and after round 3. In other words, forming a book around the top-10 players in the market.

The tipping notation is the same as previously: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.

In the race to post tips in the very short gap between the end of rd2 and the start of rd3, I didn't properly explain how additional tips work. In line with the Betfair tips previously posted, any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.

Dustin Johnson  27th

Pre-tournament
BACK 9.8 (9.0) [to win 4pts] - a winner two weeks ago and 3rd last week so that meets two of the standard angles for this event and with him leading the strokes gained - tee-to-green category, I think that there is some value in siding with DJ this week.
Pre-rd3
BACK 6.0 (3.75) [to win 10pts] - well-rested after finishing his round yesterday and only three shots off the pace in 5th place - I would price the World #1 at shorter odds from this position.
Pre-rd4
BACK 210 (120) [to win 9pts] - only five shots off 2nd place if Koepka falters today and he did close with three birdies in the last four holes

Rory McIlroy  50th

Pre-tournament
LAY 14.5 (33) [10pts liability] - was poor on Sunday (again) when his poor iron play throughout the week couldn't be rescued by a hot putter. He has won this title twice, but this will be a more challenging test of his game than last week.
Pre-rd3
LAY 48 (203) [10pts liability] - seven shots off the pace in 25th place and struggling with his irons (76th in strokes gained - approaches) and his putting (106 in strokes gained - putting) so far this week
Pre-rd4
No bet - no lay odds available 

Justin Thomas  6th

Pre-tournament
LAY 17 (19) [2pts liability] - a winner in style last week, so is another that fits the already won this season and played well in the Bridgestone Invitational angles. It is always difficult to follow-up a win the week before and, although he has done it previously, he was not the defending champion in a Major so there is a little value in opposing him this week
Pre-rd3
No bet - his price again looks correct
Pre-rd4
LAY 16.5 (17) [1pt liability] - his short game hasn't been that good this week, so I think that he is a little over-priced.

Jason Day  19th

Pre-tournament
LAY 20 (29) [9pts liability] - has top-15 finishes in each of the last five years and won the Wells Fargo Championship three months ago, but he is not quite putting four rounds together at the moment and a lowly ranking of 133rd for greens in regulation on Tour is a concern this week.
Pre-rd3
LAY 25 (32) [6pts liability] - opposing again to less-than-full stakes. In 12th place and five shots off the lead, he hasn't been particularly good around the greens so I would price him a little higher.
Pre-rd4
Pre-rd3
No bet - his price looks correct

Brooks Koepka  1st

Pre-tournament
LAY 22 (48) [10pts liability] - another on a run of top-15 finishes in this event (four) and did defend the U.S. Open in June, but he is a hit-and-miss player who plays aggresively and I'd rather oppose than side with such a player in a Major
Pre-rd3
LAY 6.8 (9.2) [10pts liability] - shot the low score in rd2 and that is always difficult to follow up. Has been very good tee-to-green so far this week, but short game not as strong so I would price him higher.
Pre-rd4
LAY 2.56 (2.70) [7pts liability] - he has played well so far this week, is a Major champion and holds a two-shot lead, but his game looked to struggle over the closing stretch last night - he missed four greens in a row from 13-16, being two-over-par for that stretch, and that downward momentum was halted by an easy par-5 and closing hole. He successfully defended the lead at the start of the U.S. Open in June, but he had failed to do so in his two previous attempts on the PGA Tour so I would price him a little higher. 

Rickie Fowler  12th

Pre-tournament
No bet - his price looks correct
Pre-rd3
No bet - his price again looks correct
Pre-rd4
No bet - his price again looks correct

Jordan Spieth  12th

Pre-tournament
LAY 27 (51) [10pts liability] - an easy player to oppose as his 9th place finish in the Open Championship is his only top-20 finish since the Masters in April
Pre-rd3
LAY 90 (230) [10pts liability] - seven shots off the pace in 25th place, but struggling off the tee. Scrambling has saved his score so far this week, but he will a lot more to get into contention.
Pre-rd4
LAY 650 (1000) [10pts liability] - eight shots back and not playing well, he should be in the 'no odds' bracket

Justin Rose  19th

Pre-tournament
BACK 30 (15.5) [to win 10pts] - this price is clearly based on concerns on the back injury that forced him to withdraw from last week's Bridgestone Invitational. If it was still a concern, he wouldn't be playing this week, so there is plenty of value here if he is healthy
Pre-rd3
BACK 70 (44) [to win 7pts] - His approach play hasn't been particularly strong so far this week, but he has been in contention for most of his 36 holes and this is a large price given his leaderboard position and pedigree.
Pre-rd4
BACK 410 (250) [to win 10pts] - The price should be lower for the World #3 who is alongside Dustin Johnson. He needs help from Koepka, but he opened with three birdies in the first six holes yesterday and a repeat would give him the momentum to quickly close the gap.

Jon Rahm  4th

Pre-tournament
No bet - his price looks correct
Pre-rd3
LAY 28 (34) [4pts liability] - His price is a little low for someone five shots off the pace and with so many good players ahead of him. None of his stats so far this week are stellar so looks unlikely to make a strong challenge based on performance so far this week.
Pre-rd4
No bet - his price looks correct

Tommy Fleetwood  35th

Pre-tournament
LAY 34 (50) [8pts] - he has become a global player since winning last year's Race to Dubai and that makes for a daunting schedule. He has played well given those demands, but it is still notable that he hasn't won since January and that was on the European Tour
Pre-rd3
LAY 610 (990) [10pts] - I can't see him challenging from 49th place in a field such as this.
Pre-rd4
No bet - no lay odds available