8-2; +5.26pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Paul Casey 34  (17)  8th
Admittedly, he doesn't win enough Tour titles to match the top-5 in the market, but he is incredibly consistent - he hasn't missed a cut in the last 12 months and finished in the top-20 in 15 of his last 18 starts. He also started the final round inside the top-5 in three of the four Playoff events - his last starts in the U.S., so he could easily be a player to trade-out at a profit after the course rotation is complete. His first start of the year was in the Abu Dhabi Championship when he finished 9th, tied with Dustin Johnson, so that rustiness is out of the way and he ranks 8th in the 'Top Performers on Poa Annua Greens' (https://futureoffantasy.com/poa-annua-specialists-pgatour) so I think that he is over-priced.

LAY 10pts liability

Dustin Johnson 6.8  (10)  2nd
Johnson is a clear favourite in this market and justifiably so. He is a two-time winner of this event (2009, 2010) and has three top-5 finishes in the last four years, tops the 'poa annua' rankings above and is already a winner this year (Sentry Tournament of Champions). But 6.8 is extremely low given the pro-am format and the qualitiy of the field. He is far more likely to be higher than this price than lower when the fina; round begins.
Jon Rahm 12.5  (14.5)  26th
Rahm's attacking play should suit him on courses set up for pro-am play and he did finish 5th last year, but as good as he played in the first two weeks of the year, he hasn't anywhere near as impressive in the last two weeks. His ranks for strokes gained - approaches in his four events this year have been 10th, 7th, 69th, 69th.
Jordan Spieth 12.5  (14.5)  20th
Spieth is the defending champion, but the winner of 11 PGA Tour titles has yet to successfully defend a title and this week looks to be a lower probability than usual. The reason - the much-publicised difficulties that he is having with his putter that see him ranked 195th in strokes gained - putting this season. Playing on poa annua greens is not normally conducive to improving confidence in a putter.
Jason Day 13  (19)  2nd
Day won the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago and he has finishes of 4th, 5th, and 6th in three of the last five years here. But as good as to see him winning again, he owed it to his performance on the North Course. On the South Course where the strokes gained stats were recorded, he ranked only 20th in strokes gained - total and 50th in strokes gained - approaches to suggest that his game really wasn't at the level needed to win on this Tour and it was Noren's failings and the battle of attrition on the back nine on Sunday that saw him win.
Rory McIlroy 13.5  (20)  mc
Finishes of 2nd and 3rd on the European Tour this year are certainly an improvement on his injury-plagued 2017 form, but his inability to impose himself in the final round was also a feature of those event. In both cases, he started the final round one shot behind the leader and clear favourite to win (odds-on for the Dubai Desert Classic), but he finished four shots behind in the Abu Dhabi Championship and still one shot behind in the Dubai Desert Classic.

Adding:

LAY 10pts liability

Phil Mickelson 34  (44)  2nd
Mickelson's price has now dropped to a range where I am confortable to oppose him. It was certainly entertaining to see him challenge on Sunday - the first time that he has looked competitive in three starts this year - and he does have a very good record in this event. but he is still without a win on this Tour since 2013 so I will oppose him again.  

No further plays until the course rotation is complete after rd3. 

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK

Dustin Johnson 1.98  (1.92)  [10pts staked]  2nd
Joint-leader with Potter and two shots ahead of the rest of the field, this is an event that Johnson should win for the third time. He looks vulnerable when starting the final round of the HSBC Champions with a six-shot lead and was caught by Justin Rose, but any such doubts over his ability to lead from the front were dismissed when he started the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions with a two-shot lead and finished the day eight shots clear. Not having a significant lead to defend will be an advantage and he ranks 2nd in birdies, birdie conversion and par breakers so far this week, as well as par-5 scoring, so he has the key scoring characteristics for winners in pro-am events.
Ted Potter 14  (10)  [to win 10pts]  1st
Joint-leader with the World #1, but there is still value in these odds. Whereas Johnson is ranked 2nd in the categories highlighted above, Potter is 1st (birdies, birdie conversion and par-breakers), plus he ranks 1st in par-4 scoring and 2nd in par-5 scoring this week so his stats are even better than Johnson's. Admittedly, he hasn't been in this position on the PGA Tour previously, but he is 1-for-1 when leading after 54 holes on the Web.com Tour (2011 South Georgia Classic) and he has won on the PGA Tour previously (2012 Greenbrier Classic). I'll be surprised if he does defeat Johnson to win this title, but not as much as these odds suggest.

LAY 10pts liability

Patrick Rodgers 46  8th
Rodgers has made his first cut in four attempts this year and now sits in 5th place and three shots off the pace. He is winless on this Tour and ranks 116th in greens in regulation so far this week, so really doesn't have the game or the confidence to be a serious challenger today.