11-2; +9.01pts

Pre-tournament plays:

Back to win 10pts

Rickie Fowler 14.5  (14)  11th
Fowler missed the cut last week, but it was his first start of the year and it was the fourth time in five attempts that he has missed the cut in the Farmers Insurance Open so I don't read too much it. This week's course is very different - he lost in a playoff two years ago and finished 4th last year - and he did play so well last year, so I'm tempted by these odds.

LAY liability 10pts

Jordan Spieth 10.5  (15)  mc
Finishes of 9th and 18th are not particularly good for a player of Spieth's calibre (or a player at these odds) and while he is 2-for-2 in top-10 finishes here, neither was a top-5 finish. This price looks rather short and I'm happy to lay up to a few points higher.
Jon Rahm 12.5  (17)  11th
Rahm's impatience cost him at the weekend. While he is certainly the most impressive player so far this year, it was such a reversal of his controlled play that I'm willing to oppose him at these odds until he is straighter/more cautious off the tee.
Hideki Matsuyama 13  (19)  wd
Difficult to find many examples of players with such impressive course form - 4th-2nd-1st-1st in his four appearaces - but I'm still not convinced that he is near the level that he was before last year's Playoffs so he remains a player to oppose pre-tournament.
Justin Thomas 19  (30)  17th
With his fourth caddy of the year on his bag this week and a couple of missed cuts in the last two years here, Thomas is another that I am happy to oppose at these odds.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY liability 10pts

Rickie Fowler 3.5  (4.1)  11th
Backing Fowler at 14.5 pre-tournament has created a good-looking book at the halfway point, but he is not a player to continue with in this position - he is 0-for-7 when leading or co-leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour. He is 0-for-1 in this position on the Web.com Tour and his only Tour win from 36 holes was the 2011 Korea Open. Given that his tee-to-green is play is no more than average - he ranks 52nd in greens in regulation so far this week - his putting should continue to keep hm in contention, but I price him at higher odds than 3.5. Even if he wins, it will still be a decent profit on the event.
Daniel Berger 9.8  (10)  11th
Berger's ball-striking has been much more impressive this week and he is only one shot behind Fowler and DeChambeau, but he is another player that I think is (a little) too short. He has made the cut in eight events in a row, but not recorded a top-10 finish and his only wins have come in the St Jude Classic which does not feature the strongest fields of the season.
Chesson Hadley 32  (42)  5th
Hadley was in great form at the end of last year when he regained his PGA Tour Card, but this is the first time that he has appeared near the top of the leaderboard this year. He is only two shots off the pace, but his sole wini on this Tour - 2014 Puerto Rico Open - was against much weaker opposition.
Brendan Steele 40  (40)  3rd
Steele has a good record in this event and has won against good opposition, but his play this week does not warrant his current 8th place position - he ranks 64th in greens in regulation, 48th in strokes gained - tee-to-green and 80th in strokes gained - approaches so far this week. He has the experience to do well over the weekend, but his game needs to improve significantly.
Byeong Hun An 42  (55)  23rd
An is alongside Steele in 8th place, haing been 36-hole and 54-hole leader last year. He had just one top-5 finish on any Tour last year, so I don't see him as a player to convert from this position.
Xander Schauffele 44  (44)  17th
Schauffele has shown no particular form this year and that is matched with his ball-striking stats so far this week - he ranks 39th in greens in regulation and 53rd in strokes gained - approaches - so he also looks like a player who will struggle to convert from 8th place.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Bryson DeChambeau 14.5  (10)  5th
DeChambeau started the day as joint-leader with Fowler and had the better of his playing partner for most of the day and was three ahead of him with three holes to play, but finished one behind after Fowler's impressive finish. It wasn't a poor performance by DeChambeau and he is playing the better golf - he ranks 5th in strokes gained off the tee and 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, whereas Fowler is 20th and 13th respectively. Rahm is clearly Fowler's main threat and he starts the day in 2nd place alongside DeChambeau, but Rahm's price is just too low for me, whereas DeChambeau's price is much too high so I'll side with only DeChambeau in today's market.

LAY 10pts liability

Phil Mickelson 15.5  (16.5)  5th
Mickelson is only two shots back and is a three-time winner of this event, but his last Tour win was in 2013 and in terms of the stats mentioned above, Mickelson ranks 48th in strokes gained off the tee and 25th in strokes gained tee-to-green, He may be highly entertaining to watch, but he is not playing well enough to win this event.