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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Miles

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

The Players Championship
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RD 4:

12:05 PM ET  Hughes +225 over Thomas 2.5pts
12:45 PM ET  Howell -170 over Brown 2.5pts
12:55 PM ET  Stricker -105 over Scott 2.5pts
2:05 PM ET  Woods +125 over Spieth 2.5pts
2:25 PM ET  Schauffele -110 over Walker 2.5pts

5Dimes


RD 3:

11:10 AM ET  Grillo -165 over Stroud 2pts
1:40 PM ET  DeChambeau -105 over Garcia 2pts
2:30 PM ET  Cantlay -200 over Lee 2pts
2:40 PM ET  Simpson -130 over Schwartzel 2pts

5Dimes


RD 2 Add:

12:30 PM ET  Glover -165 over Campbell 2.5pts

2:00 PM ET  Garnett -115 over Kizzire 2.5pts
2:10 PM ET  Mitchell +135 over Noren 2.5pts

5Dimes

 

RD 2:

7:54 AM ET  Horschel +150 over Kuchar 2pts
8:05 AM ET   Kodaira +105 over Woodland 2pts

5Dimes

Afternoon plays up around 12 PM ET


RD 1 Add:

1:15 PM ET  Horschel +135 over Kuchar 2pts

1:30 PM ET  Kodaira +110 over Woodland 2pts

1:40 PM ET  Cantlay -125 over Oosthuizen 2pts

2:10 PM ET  DeChambeau -135 over Chappell 2pts

 

5Dimes 

 

RD 1:

7:10 AM ET  Glover -150 over Campbell 2pts
7:30 AM ET  Spaun -120 over Brown 2pts
7:40 AM ET  Simpson -125 over Hatton 2pts
8:00 AM ET  D Johnson -150 over Koepka 2pts

5Dimes

TIPPING STRATEGY

My strategy is based on several different theories, which I have outlined below. It is also 99% based on numbers. Every play I post is supported by some form of numbers, not what I think should happen.



1) History repeats itself. The large majority of tournaments each year are played on the same course. And while the players change, the stats and power rankings that predict success on each course typically do not. And this is where trends are helpful. (Trends are very helpful for tournaments with new courses as well)

• The trends that I use are specific to each round of each tournament. I use approximately 40 different player stats and approximately 50 different power rankings. These stats and power rankings are for an 8 week period and a 4 week period, and are also weighted. The win/loss record of each of these stats and power rankings are accumulated from the three previous years of each tournament. The average sample size is no less than a 100 head to head matchups for each round.



2) It is my belief that individual sports provide the greatest opportunity for playing underdogs. Therefore, determining which underdogs have the most value can be highly profitable.

• In regards to golf, if an individual has a bad day, he does not have any teammates to pick up the slack. In addition, betting lines for the world’s top players are often grossly inflated in order to balance the action. And even the world’s top players have bad days or extended periods of bad play. The models I have created and are continuing to develop (regression analysis) allow me to find high value underdogs.



3) More to come……

 

STAKING PLAN

My plays are based upon a percentage of my starting bankroll each season. They range from 1% to 8%, with the large majority ranging from 3% to 5%. In order to stay consistent with my fellow tipsters here on TourTips, I have converted my % system to a points system. 1% is equal to 0.5pts. Therefore, a 3% play equals 1.5pts, a 5% play equals 2.5pts, etc.