4-0; +3.26pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liability

Jason Day 18  (26)  5th
Opposing last week's winner. Day has won two weeks in a row once before in 2016, but the second event was the WGC matchplay event so there are not the same mental pressures as leading a group of challengers on the final day. When the course in the second week is TPC Sawgrass, it is very daunting task mentally. He has won here previously (2016), but he was 60th last year and missed the cut in three of his other five appearances here so he doesn't consistently play well here, so I would price him at higher odds.
Jordan Spieth 18.5  (19)  41st
Spieth's odds are just low enough for him to make this list. He is a player who should play well at TPC Sawgrass and he did on his debut in 2014 when co-leading after 54 holes only to finish 4th. Since then, though, he has missed three cuts in a row here and comes off a missed cut the team event, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. There have been signs recently that he getting closer to winning on Tour, but it is still 10 months since his last win.
Rory McIlroy 21  (27)  mc
McIlroy won for the first time in 18 months in March (Arnold Palmer Invitational), but despite being back to his best in those final nine holes, he has not maintained that level since. His finishes of 36th, 5th and 16th suggest that he is not too far away, but this is not a course that should suit his game - he will use a 2-iron a great deal this week which means that he will rarely use his best club in the bag, the driver. It can be said that he does have a good record here: after missing the cut in his first three visits, his finishes have been 8th-6th-8th-12th-35th. However, he has never contended here despite those finishes - he has never been within three shots of the lead after 36, 54 or 72 holes in this event. 

No rd3 plays.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK 10pts stake

Webb Simpson 1.16  (1.04)  1st
Yes, this is the Players Championship with a couple of very difficult holes to close, but one statistic puts these odds into context: since 1996, there have been 83 Tour events (recognised by OWGR) in which the leader has been 7+ shots clear after 54 holes ... only once has the leader not won the event (Parker McLachlin, 2007 Pete Dye Classic, Web.com Tour). Add in the fact that Simpson's nearest rival in terms of the odds market is NINE shots back and the scale of task for the chasing pack is clear. Simpson is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour and while he has never held such a large lead after 54 holes, the one time that he held more than a two shot lead was the 2013 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (four shot lead) and he moved away from the field to win by six shots. Dustin Johnson's record on the front nine has been -1, +1, even par so far this week. He will need to improve his best by at least three shots to put Simpson under any pressure today.