7-3; +6.62pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Rickie Fowler 9.0  (7.8)  [6pts]  12th
The only player from the World top-15 in this field and with two top-3 finishes in the last three years, Fowler is a worthy favourite. Admittedly, this year's course has been used only once in the last three years, but Fowler did finish 3rd last year. Admittedly, again, Fowler is not the type of player to side with at single-figure odds pre-tournament given his propensity to just fall short of winning, but it is very rare to see just one player from the top-15 in the World Rankings in a PGA Tour field apart events played alongside a WGC tournament or those played in November. Against this field and on this course, Fowler warrants single-figure odds so warrants a less-than-full-stakes play.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Francesco Molinari 19.5  (20)  [1pt]  1st
Of the leading players, Molinari is a little shorter than I would price him. He didn't play when this course was used last year and, for all his form on the European Tour, he hasn't finished in the top-10 on the PGA Tour since August last year (15 events).
Kyle Stanley 23  (42)  32nd
The defending champion and 2nd in the Memorial Tournament four weeks ago ensure that Stanley is a short price for this event. This is a fairways-and-greens type of course which suits Stanley and he won last year from well off the pace - he was 10 shots behind with 36 holes to play and 4 shots with one round to play. He was certainly helped by the wet and wild conditions which will not be repeated this year. And even though he reached the playoff in the Memorial Tournament earlier this month, it was far from a confident performance in the final round. I can't see him winning from the front or justifying these odds.
J.B. Holmes 32  (46)  [7pts]  mc
Top-3 finishes in his last two events makes Holmes the form player in this field, but, as already mentioned, this is a fairways-and-greens course and that is certainly not his game. He finished 68th with a best round of 71 last year, so I think these odds are too weighted on current form rather than this week's course setup.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Francesco Molinari 5.9  (5.1)  [8pts]  1st
Molinari has clearly brought his form from the European Tour over the Atlantic. He won the BMW PGA Championship five weeks ago, finished 2nd in the Italian Open the following week and then finished 25th in the U.S. Open two weeks ago. Now he enters the weekend one shot off the pace having hit all 18 greens in regulation yesterday and leading the field in this stat. At pointed out at the start of the week, this is a fairways-and-greens type of course and this does suit Molinari, and his performance so far this week suggests that he may well better his best finish of 2nd (2017 PGA Championship) in the United States.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Beau Hossler 7.0  (8.6)  [8pts]  6th
Beau Hossler is in contention again this year. He was 2nd after 36 holes in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February; 1st after 36 holes in the Houston Open in April and 5th after 36 holes in the Travelers Championship last week. He finished 43rd, 2nd and 2nd, respectively, so he is getting better when in contention and he needs to as he is in a three-way for the lead this week. However, he is there because of a hot putter (2nd in strokes gained - putting) rather than good play (18th in strokes gained - tee-to-green) and he will need to improve in that area if he is to maintain his current position.
Brian Gay 8.8  (9.0)  [1pt]  8th
Gay is one of Hossler's co-leaders and it marginally over-priced at these odds. He hasn't held the lead after 18, 36 or 54 holes since 2009 so contention rust will be factor this weekend.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Abraham Ancer 4.7  (3.95)  [8pts]  4th
Ancer's 62 yesterday saw him finish the day as joint-leader with Molinari and they have a two-shot over the rest of the field. Molinari is rightly-priced as the favourite from this position, but I wouldn't make Ancer such a long-shot given the quality of the chasing pack. He has played well this week, ranking 3rd in strokes gained - tee-to-green (Molinari is 1st), and he has won previously from this position on the Web.com Tour (2015 Nova Scotia Open).

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Zac Blair 16  (17)  [2pts]  27th
In third place and two shots behind Molinari and Ancer, such a position would normally lead to much lower odds. However, Blair ranks 518th in the World Rankings and 179th in the FedEx Cup rankings, so he will be under enormous pressure to at least maintain his current top-3 position to keep his playing rights for next season. Ranked 188th in Final Round Scoring on the PGA Tour, it appears very unlikely that he will achieve that goal.
Andrew Landry 16.5  (18.5)  [4pts]  8th
Landry is the top-ranked player (World Rankings and FedEx Cup) of the chasing pack who are within five shots of the lead, but that is largely due to his win in the Texas Open. His finishes since have been mc-wd-67th-mc-65th-mc so that makes his current 5th place position rather a surprise. He has played well this week, but I would price him at higher odds from this position.