7-1; +4.96pts

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 10pts liabiltiy

Billy Horschel 29  (75)  51st
Good course form has resulted in a huge drop in odds for Horschel this week - last week, he was available to lay at 180 at the start of the Memorial Tournament. That course form does read 10th, 6th, 8th, and 4th in his last four visits, but in three of those four years, he had been in a very strong run of form leading up to this event and in the other, he would become the FedEx Cup Champion that year. Admittedly, he did win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans - a team event with Scott Piercy - but his recent form has not shown that he is close to winning again. Certainly, he deserves shorter odds than last week, but not this low.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Dustin Johnson 1.95  (1.91)  [4pts]  1st
Johnson is 7-for-13 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour (incl. WGC) and while he failed to convert on the last occasions (2017 HSBC Champions and 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), he was against much stronger fields and challengers than he faces this week - the four players who are within two shots of him are 309th, 207th, 186th and 121st in the World Rankings. Johnson is 2nd. A former winner here and ranked 1st in strokes gained - tee-to-green so far this week, I would have expected his odds to have been a little shorter.

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

C.T. Pan 17.5  (19.5)  [4pts]  18th
Pan starts the weekend in 4th place, but he has managed just one top-5 finish in 53 attempts on the PGA Tour (2017 Farmers Insurance Open), particularly as he has yet to finish in the top-15 in any event this year and is in danger of losing his Tour Card for next season.
Brandt Snedeker 19  (24)  [6pts]  6th
Starting three shots off the pace, this is a similarly important opportunity for Snedeker to rectify a poor FedEx Cup Rankings position (128th). He is only this position because of a career day on the greens yesterday - he gained 5.63 shots with his putter yesterday - but there is little in his form this year (best finish: 15th) to suggest that he can replicate his low score today.
Wesley Bryan 20  (23)  [3pts]  12th
The price is just a little too low on Bryan. He is in 4th place and two shots back, but his best finish this year is 27th in the limited field Sentry Tournament of Champions, so he looks an unlikely challenge to the World #2.
Phil Mickelson 40  (60)  [7pts]  12th
Mickelson is a long way back - six shots and in 14th place, so I wouldn't price him this low enough is there is a lack of leading players behind him and the leader. He ranks 74 in greens in regulation after 36 holes so will need to play a great deal better if he to make any headway into this lead.

Pre-rd4 plays

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Dustin Johnson 1.46  (1.45)  [1pt staked]  1st
The two co-leaders are five ahead of Stewart Cink in 3rd place and the chasing pack is thinly-packed behind Cink so I think that the leaders are slightly underpriced. Johnson is a former winner here and still leads the field in strokes gained - tee-to-green so has warranted favouritism throughout the week. This looks like a head-to-head between Johnson and Putnam, i.e. between the World #2 and World #273, so the short odds are fully justified.
Andrew Putnam 3.6  (3.50)  [2pts]  2nd
Putnam's performance yesterday in matching Johnson means that he cannot be discounted. He ranks 2nd in strokes gained - tee-to-green, but ranks 1st in plenty of other categories this week. He hasn't won on the PGA Tour previously, but he has two Web.com Tour titles and Johnson is the type of player who may easily win this event by five-plus shots or struggle to make birdies all day. I'd price him a little lower to match yesterday's performance.