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3-2; -16.48pts No pre-tournament plays. No pre-rd3 plays. Pre-rd4 plays: BACK to win 10pts unless stated Paul Casey 1.53 (1.42) [10pts staked] 2nd
This course is clearly a good fit for Casey. He lost out in a playoff to Bubba Watson three years ago, he finished 5th last year and now he leads by four shots with one round to play. He did shoot the low of the day yesterday to jump from 5th to 1st, but his whole has been very good so far this week - he ranks 3rd in strokes gained - tee-to-green and 5th in strokes gained - putting. He already won on the PGA Tour this year (Houston Open), his second PGA Tour title, so he should be confident of defending such a large lead. Over the past 15 years, there have been 36 occasions on the PGA Tour that a player has held a four-shot lead and the player has gone on to win 29 of those 36 occasions. That makes this odds look rather generous. LAY 10pts liability unless stated Brian Harman 22 (32) [9pts] 6th
Having been the 2nd round leader, Harman is now five shots behind Casey and his tee-to-green suggests that he is not likely to seriously challenge for the lead: he ranks 53rd (of 74) in greens in regulation and 48th in strokes gained - tee-to-green.
Bubba Watson 32 (46) [7pts] 1st
Watson is a former winner: 2015 when he defeated Casey in a playoff and 2010 when he defeated Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin in a playoff. However, he is six shots behind Casey and even though is clearly a good course for him, his form has been poor recently.
Bryson DeChambeau 42 (46) [2pts] 9th
DeChambeau is also six shots off the pace and even he won earlier this month, these odds are a little too short given the leaderboard position and his struggles off the tee this week (he ranks 55th (of 74) in strokes gained - off-the-tee.
Anirban Lahiri 44 (48) [2pts] 9th
Lahiri is a shot closer, but is another that I feel is a little overpriced. He is yet to have a top-25 finish this year and ranks 111th in the FedEx Cup standings so is under a lot of pressure to maintain his current 3rd place position today.
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TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES
Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange
markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for
which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips
that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange
market, there are two things to note:
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Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the
market going in-play;
-
Tips will focus only on those players near the top of
the market.
There is plenty of value in backing players at very
large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the
next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in
providing tips for these odds.
Odds of 2.0 or higher
All BACK plays
will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.
So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is
10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are
staked to win 1.25pts.
Odds of less than 2.0
All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY
plays will be to win 10pts
The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to
take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.
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