6-4; -18.25pts

Pre-tournament plays

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Dustin Johnson 10  (9.8)  [1pt]  3rd
When a market has been open for months there is plenty of reason to expect there to be little value on the eve of the tournament, but Johnson was available for 10.5 and Rose 17.5 only 48 hours ago so the minimising of value is much more recent. That is, these are two players that I think will feature prominently this week and there is still enough value for a minimal interest at this stage. Shinnecock Hills will be playing hard and fast this week which should favour someone with very good skills around the greens and the fairways were narrowed after last year's U.S. Open, but they are still over 50% wider than in 2004 so there is an advantage to power-hitters this week. Johnson has said that he is able to hit driver on a lot of holes and if he can find these wider fairways, he will be well-placed to tame this course given the state of his game at the moment. He was very impressive when winning last week and won this event two years ago, having been 4th and 2nd in the two years beforehand. A very short price for a player in a Major, but there hasn't been a longshot win this event for some time (McDowell at 36th in the World Rankings was the lowest-ranked winner this decade) and there is just enough value for a minimal interest.
Justin Rose 15.5  (15)  [1pt]  10th
Doubling up the World #1 with the World #3 at this stage. Both Johnson and Rose rank inside the top-20 for Scrambling on the PGA Tour (Johnson 8th, Rose 18th) and are both have very good length off the tee without being particularly wayward. He certainly divides opinion on whether or not he is a good links player, but he is certainly good in the wind as he showed in the Fort Worth Invitational which he won and the wind was also a factor the following week at Muirfield Village where he finished 6th. His game is as good as it has ever been and it needs to be on a U.S. Open course. He won at Merion five years ago and I expect him to feature strongly this week.

Pre-rd3 plays

BACK to win 10pts unless stated

Dustin Johnson 1.86  (1.47)  [9pts staked]  3rd
Topping up the pre-tournament play to the max 10pts stake. Despite having the worst of the draw - there has been a 2.24 shot difference in average scores for the Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon groupings - Dustin has looked the player in most control of his game this week and so fully deserves his four-shot lead. His tee-to-green stats aren't reflective of a player at the top of the leaderboard, but he was playing in cold, windy conditions yesterday morning when the other half of the field played in sunny, windless conditions in the afternoon. You can't really compare tee-to-green stats across those two groups, though he does lead the field in strokes gained - around-the-green which was always going to be crucial this week. And what about the ability to defend a four-shot lead over the weekend? He did have a six-shot lead after 54 holes in the 2017 HSBC Champions and lost out to Justin Rose, but that was on a very different type of course where the winning score was 14-under-par. The U.S. Open is very different. Not only has the winner held the lead after 36 holes in each of the last four years, but in the five times that anyone has held a lead of three or more shots after 36 holes since 2000, that player has won this event (Tiger Woods, 2000; Tiger Woods, 2002; Graeme McDowell, 2010; Rory McIlroy, 2011; Martin Kaymer, 2014). This is an event in which it is very difficult to catch a leader unless he comes back to the field. With Johnson playing so well and being a recent U.S. Open champion 2016), I think that the odds on him winning should be much shorter.

Pre-rd4 plays

LAY 10pts liability unless stated

Brooks Koepka 5.6  (8.4)  1st
The USGA lost control of the course and this event yesterday. What a farce after there so many had been looking forward to Shinnecock Hills providing a true golfing test after last year's U.S. Open. Koepka was the winner last year on those wide open fairways and he is one of the joint leaders after a course of very impressive rounds. He gained 2.71 shots on the field yesterday on the greens and that kept him in contention while so many other founds them close to unplayable. He will partner his close fiend, Dustin Johnson, in the penultimate group which is a very good draw for both of them, but I still think Johnson will win from this position. Yes, he struggled with the conditions on the front nine, but the display on the back nine was as good as any in the U.S. Open and all the more impressive given the front nine. Partnered with Koepka will be ideal and he does have the experience to win in this position. Koepka did win last year, but not when leading at the start of the final round and his record when leading after 54 holes is 0-for-2 on the PGA Tour. Last year's win is his only win on the PGA Tour in the last three years and I would price him at higher odds.
Henrik Stenson 14.5  (15.5)  [2pts]  6th
Stenson is a little overpriced from 6th place and two shots back. He had a great front nine yesterday, but came home in 40 to lose his momentum - the opposite case to Johnson. He has struggled in the final rounds of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Houston Open - the only other times that he has been in serious contention this year - so I'm not convinced that he will perform as well as in previous years.
Patrick Reed 29  (48)  4th
Reed is a shot back and has the added pressure of being the Masters champion so is the only player capable of winning the Grand Slam this year. He hasn't recorded a top-10 finish in this event year, so is over-performing so far this week.
Branden Grace 55  (150)  25th
Grace has had two top-5 finishes in this event, but in 10th place and four shots back, he will need a lot of help from the leaders and/or the USGA in setting up the course similar to yesterday. I don't think they can repeat yesterday's farce in the final round, and the USGA has released a statement saying that they have watered the greens last night and this morning to achieve conditions similar to round 1, so I have largely discounted his chances.
Justin Thomas 75  (170)  25th
The same goes for Thomas in 16th place and five shots back. A best finish of 9th in this event and poor stats this week confirm that this may be the last of the Majors that he will win.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75  (100)  [5pts]  15th
Back to 7th place and three shots off the pace. He benefited from the easiest conditions yesterday and he make the weekend on the cut line. He should find it much more difficult today when playing in the leading groups.
Jim Furyk 95  (120)  [3pts]  48th
Alongside him is former U.S. Open winner (2003), Furyk. He did finish 7th in the Valspar Championship in March, but that is his only top-20 finish since 2016, so I would certainly price him at triple digit odds.