6-3; +3.61pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Justin Rose 21  (18)  5th
Finishes of 22nd-8th-37th in his three starts in 2018 show that Rose has yet to reach the form levels of last 2017 and that he has played a very light schedule, but that will change with the Masters Tournament only a month away. Prior to 2015, he eight top-30 finishes in all eight visits, but this will be the first time that he has played since the renovations in 2015. With a weakened field - only Spieth (4th) and Rose (5th) appear in the top-10 of the World Rankings - these odds look a little generous on Rose to rediscover his world-beating form of a few months ago.

LAY 20pts liability

Jordan Spieth 10  (11.5)  mc
Spieth won this event prior to the renovations in 2015 and he finished 18th the following year, but he has been far from his best in 2018. It is not just that his best finish is 9th in six starts, but that his putting struggles in January have been followed by struggles in his tee-to-green play ever since - he missed the cut in the Phoenix Open and then ranked 44th-27th-45th in greens in regulation in the next three events. That is a key stat this week and so these odds are too low given the state of his game.
Rory McIlroy 17  (30)  mc
McIlroy is another whose game is far from its best despite a couple of good finishes in the Middle East in January. He failed to break par last week on a course on which he had previously won, so he is easy to oppose when making his course debut this week.
Sergio Garcia 21  (23)  4th
Garcia played well last week to finish 7th, but once again showed his putting frailties when in contention and the greens are not as fast as Augusta National's. This will be his first start here since 2013, so I would price him a little higher than this.
Henrik Stenson 26  (38)  mc
This will be Stenson's first start since finishing 60th in the Maybank Championship five weeks ago and his first start on the PGA Tour since the BMW Championship - he failed to reach the Tour Championship. He did win the Wyndham Championship, which he only added to his schedule as he would not have met minimum tournaments critertion to keep his Tour Card for this season, but he hasn't shown his best form for a year, so I will oppose him at this pruce.

No pre-rd3 plays.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Brandt Snedeker 6.0  (5.6)  31st
I still think that Rose will win, but covering that play with a couple of other players whose odds are higher than I would expect. Despite the distraction of being paired with Woods yesterday, Snedeker produced a very solid round fo golf to remain in 2nd place and close the gap on Conners from two shots to win. He has won eight times on the PGA Tour already and I would price him a little lower to make it nine today.
Corey Conners 9.6  (7.8)  16th
Conners only got into this event as an alternate after failing to Monday qualify and has a best finish of 29th on this Tour so the final round leader should be expected to fall away today. That might well happen, but he was caught by Tiger Woods yesterday and then pulled away again to end the day with sole posession of the lead. He is playing like with nothing to lose and while he justifies high odds for a final round leader, I wouldn't go this high after yesterday's performance.

LAY 10pts liability

Tiger Woods 3.55  (5.5)  2nd
This week has increasingly been all about Tiger Woods and these odds reflect that. He did play well yesterday, but finished the day still in 2nd place and now he has Justin Rose alongside him as well as Brandt Snedeker. Both players have had a lot more experience of being in final round contention recently and both will be away from the main media attention today. Winning again means so much to Woods that I think that it may stifle his game today if he doesn't get a strong start. I'd make him 2nd favourite behind Rose rather than clear favourite so I'm happy to oppose him as he starts the final round inside the top-5 for the first time since 2015 and seeks his first win since 2013.
Patrick Reed 15  (24)  2nd
A shot further back in 6th place is Reed, but he has shown little form this year and with the quality of players ahead of him, I'd expect him to be at bigger odds to win from this position.