Paul Casey has been striking the ball superbly for some time now, but he continues to frustrate on the greeens, and his record at Innisbrook is very ordinary. With that in mind, Henrik Stenson looks overpriced to defeat him over 72 holes. The Swede has finished no worse than eleventh on three attempts in this event and is shorter than Casey in the outrght market.

6 pts Henrik Stenson to beat Paul Casey at 13/10 (dnb) with FiveDimes.