3-6; -11.32pts

Pre-tournament plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Rickie Fowler 15.5  (13.5)  21st
Fowler may not win enough times for the amount of times that he is contention, but this is the venue for his first PGA Tour win (2012) so that is renewed optimism this week. Admittedly, it didn't work out that way two years when he held a one-shot lead at the end of 54 holes only to finish 4th and two shots out of the playoff, but it represents an opportunity to trade-out profitably over the weekend. That was the last time that this course was used for this event as it staged the PGA Championship last year when Fowler finished 5th, three shots behind Thomas. Together with the fact that he finished 2nd last time out in the Masters (only one shot behind Reed) with a very strong back nine, there is enough evidence that he is a very likely contender this week, so I would price him a little lower.
Hideki Matsuyama 25  (21)  mdf
Matsuyama was also a very strong contender at last year's PGA Championship, trading odds-on during the back nine on Sunday before dropping two shots over the last three holes and finishing 5th. Finishes of 38th, 20th and 11th in this event are also supportive given that trend of a higher finish every time he has played this course and while his game is not yet at the level that it was last August, these odds are more than enough compensation and I expect to contend again this week.

LAY 10pts liability

Rory McIlroy 9.2  (17.5)  16th
This was also the scene for McIlroy's first PGA Tour victory (2010) and he also won again in 2015 as part of a record of six top-10 finishes here in seven years. It is worth noting that his Betfair price was 4.6 at the start of the 2015 event and 5.5 in 2016, so that shows how much he has fallen from the heights achieved at that time. Even still, single figure odds are too low in my opinion. Yes, the course history (excepting the PGA Championship when finishing 22nd) suggests a low price, but his struggles in the final round of the Masters last time out suggest that his final round charge in the Arnold Palmer Invitational was still an exception rather than a return to the McIlroy of former years.
Justin Thomas 11  (14)  21st
Thomas won the PGA Championship last year, but the course will be setup more akin to this event in previous years when his record here reads: 7th-mc. He is still a better player than when missing the cut in 2016, so the primary reason for opposing him at these odds is the distraction of becoming World #1 which has affected him so clearly over the past couple of months. This week, he only needs to finish solo 12th or better to achieve that target which certainly looks achievable, but secondary targets in a tournament often lead to underperformance so I'm happy to oppose him for now.

No pre-rd3 plays.

Pre-rd4 plays:

BACK to win 10pts

Paul Casey 10.5  (8.0)  5th
After being a player that had failed to convert so many PGA Tour chances, Casey won his 2nd PGA Tour title four starts ago (Valspar Championship) and now is very much n contention again: 3rd place and three shots behind Day. I see the Englishman being the strongest challenger and I would make his odds a little lower after his recent victory.
Nick Watney 11  (9.5)  2nd
At has been 5 1/2 years since Watney won his 6th PGA Tour title so contention rust will surely be an issue, but he leads the field in greens in regulation and has been in good form - 11 cuts made in a row. For a player in 2nd place with this experience and good play this week, I would price him at lower odds.
Bryson DeChambeau 13  (12.5)  4th
The odds have crept up enough to make this play. DeChambeau's form cannot be questioned - he has two top-3 finishes in his last three starts. He has continued that good play this week and he is a former winner on the PGA Tour (2017 John Deere Classic).

LAY 10pts liability

Jason Day 1.88  (2.26) (10pts staked)  * Update to clarify stakes for odds-on stakes *  1st
Day warrants favouritism by some margin given his two-shot lead and pedigree, but I don't make him odds-on. He has failed to convert in any of the last two occasions that he has led at the start of the final round (2016 Bridgestone Invitational and 2017 Australian Open) so it is two years since he converted such a position (2017 Players Championship). He has also been playing very poorly tee-to-green this week - he ranks 58th in greens in regulation and 73rd (of 87) in Strokes Gained - Approaches this week. Errant driving is the primary reason, but his game will be under a great deal more pressure today and it will need to improve significantly if he is to successfully defend this position.
Peter Uihlein 23  (29)  5th
Uihlein may be only three shots back in 3rd place, but with a best finish of 4th on the PGA Tour, the gulf is pedigree between him and those players around him is clear. No matter what happens today, this has been a good week after missing three cuts in a row.