RegisterLoginLogout

Home|PGA|European|Champions|LPGA|WGC|Others


Betfair Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Betfair (external)

 

Odds: Betfair Summary

Wyndham Championship
Subscribe Bookmark and Share
 
10-4; -7.83pts
 
The tipping notation is: BACK/LAY, followed by the price, followed in paratheses by the max/min price at which to BACK/LAY, respectively, followed by the BACK 'to win' and LAY 'liability' points at the stated prices, which is the number of ticks between the available price and the max/min price, up to a maximum of 10pts.

For the in-running tips ... any tip posted before rd3 or rd4 is in addition to those already posted in the event at 'BACK to win' or LAY liabilities that cumulatively sum a maximum of 10pts. For example, if a pre-tournament tip is LAY at 5pts liability and is followed by a pre-rd3 tip at LAY at 9pts liability, the pre-rd3 bet should be laid at 5pts (i.e. a maximum liability of 10pts) if the pre-tournament tip was laid and laid at 9pts if no previously liability had been taken on that player.
 
 
Webb Simpson  2nd
Pre-tournament
LAY 11.5 (12.5) [2pts]
A player who names his daughter after the event is always noteworthy, but these odds are just too low. He has been in very strong positions to repeat his 2011 win, but managed to fall short every time. Maybe that additional pressure from naming his daughter in 2014 isn't needed over the weekend.
Pre-rd3
No play. The odds look correct.
Pre-rd4
LAY 90 (110) [3pts]
Six shots off the pace and in 13th position without particularly good approach shot stats so far this week. I would price him higher odds to win from this position. 
 
 
Henrik Stenson  20th
Pre-tournament
BACK 15.5 (13.5) [3pts]
Backing to small stakes as he is certainly capable of defending his title at a canter on a course where accuracy off the tee is important - he ranks 2nd in driving accuracy on Tour. Since his return from an elbow injury. any struggles have not been with his irons, but with the putter so that should discount the injured golfer line
Pre-rd3
LAY 18.5 (29) [10pts]
A short price for a player who is 15th and seven shots off the pace. As indicated above, he has been struggling with his putter and that has continued this week, ranking 128th in strokes gained - putting, so I can't see how he can shoot the low scores needed to win from here. 
Pre-rd4
No play. No lay odds available. 
 
 
Hideki Matsuyama  11th
Pre-tournament
LAY 19.5 (36) [10pts]
A late entrant into this event and that is normally enough for me to oppose him. His form over the last 11 months is also plenty enough reason to oppose him at these odds.
Pre-rd3
BACK 600 (500) [10pts]
Eleven shots off the pace, but he has been playing well tee-to-green this week. For tiny stakes, worth a punt that he may shoot a very low round today.
Pre-rd4
LAY 340 (470) [10pts]
Did shoot 64 yesterday, but he is still seven shots back and in 24th place, so these odds are too short and an over-reaction to yesterday's round. 
 
 
Rafa Cabrera Bello  11th
Pre-tournament
LAY 28 (34) [4pts]
5th two years when leading after rd1 and in good form with finishes of 17th and 10th in the last two weeks, but I still don't see him as a winner on this side of the Atlantic yet.
Pre-rd3
No play. The odds look correct.
Pre-rd4
No play. No lay odds available.  
 
 
Brandt Snedeker  1st
Pre-tournament
LAY 30 (55) [10pts]
A former winner in 2007, has a couple of recent top-5 finishes here (2014, 2016) and has three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts so he should be an obvious contender, but his general tee-to-green play just doesn't seem to be at the same level as a few years ago, so I will oppose him at this stage of the event
Pre-rd3
LAY 2.34 (2.98) [10pts]
If not already laid pre-tournament, he is worth laying at this price. He really struggled on the front-nine yesterday, hitting only two fairways, and it was only courtesy of back-to-back holes in which he holed putts over 30 feet that he ended the day still as sole leader. That gap is down to two shots and it will still be a struggle to follow up that opening 59 even two days later. He is just 2-for-10 when leading after 36 holes on this Tour, so dealing with additional pressure with be key this weekend.
Pre-rd4
LAY 3.00 (4.3) [10pts] - it's never easy to lead an event wire-to-wire and it's even harder when having to lead for more than a single round on the final day. Snedeker played the remaining 11 holes of rd2 this morning and struggled off the tee. His lead is now only one, having been four after day one, and this will be a very long day. 
 
 
Shane Lowry  mc
Pre-tournament
LAY 36 (44) [4pts]
Another in good form - on a run of three successive top-15 finishes - and finished 7th last year so his odds are much lower now than they have been for a while, but they're rather low for me as I think that there will be let-down after being in contention for so long in last week's Major
 
 
Joaquin Niemann  33rd
Pre-tournament
LAY 36 (60) [9pts]
One day I may pay for opposing him pre-tournament, but I still think that he is over-priced based on his potential rather than his ability to win at this level. His best finish remains 5th on this Tour.
Pre-rd3
No play. No lay odds available.
Pre-rd4
No play. No lay odds available.   
 
 
Russell Henley  mc
Pre-tournament
No play - his odds looks correct to me.
 
 
Sergio Garcia  24th
Pre-tournament
LAY 38 (48) [5pts]
A past winner (2012) who says that he loves this course, but hasn't been back since 2013. That doesn't fit for me and given that he has missed his last three cuts (and finished 39th in the no-cut Bridgestone Invitational), I'd rather be opposing than siding with Garcia at this stage of the event.
Pre-rd3
LAY 12.5 (19.5) [10pts]
Garcia has struggled with his game recently and that has continued this week - he ranks 79th in strokes gained - approached - so is clearly over-achieving in lying 4th on the leaderboard. A full stake LAY iif not done pre-tournament.
Pre-rd4
LAY 24 (32) [7pts]
Four shots back and in 8th place. I would price him at higher odds given his lack of recent form. 
 
 
Ryan Moore  6th
Pre-tournament
BACK 36 (32) [2pts]
Moore has been in goodform this year with a strong of top-15 finishes. He hasn't really looked like winning since the Texas Open in April, but his course should suit him well - he ranks 4th in driving accuracy on Tour - and he did win here in 2009.
Pre-rd3
No play. The odds look correct.
Pre-rd4
No play. The odds look correct.
 


TIPS, ODDS AND STAKES

Unlike fixed odds markets, liquidity is an issue in exchange markets - there is little value in providing tips for players at odds for which there are very small amounts available. So, in order to provide tips that utilise the maximum amount of liquidity within the Betfair exchange market, there are two things to note:

  1. Tips will normally be provided within a few hours of the market going in-play;

  2. Tips will focus only on those players near the top of the market.

    There is plenty of value in backing players at very large odds in the exchange markets, but once that price has gone, the next-best price can be many ticks lower, so there is little value in providing tips for these odds.


Odds of 2.0 or higher

All BACK plays will be to win 10pts and all LAY plays will with a liability of 10pts.

So a BACK play at odds of 9 will mean that the stake is 10/(9-1) = 1.25pts. Similarly, a LAY play at odds of 9 will mean 10pts are staked to win 1.25pts.

Odds of less than 2.0

All BACK plays will have a liability of 10pts and all LAY plays will be to win 10pts

 

The numbers in brackets indicate the minimum advised odds to take for BACK plays and the maximum advised odds to take for LAY plays.