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The Tour makes it annual pilgrimage to the Bay Hill Club and Lodge to raise a glass of iced tea and lemonade to the memory of the great Arnold Palmer. Established back in 1979 the title was for the most part shared around before Tiger Woods turned up to take control. He won it four times on the bounce from 2000 and has added back-to-back successes in both 2008-09 and 2012-13. Successful defences are something of a theme in the event’s modern history. Loren Roberts started the trend in 1994-95 and, rather more unexpectedly, Matt Every in 2014-15. Originally laid out by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee in 1961, Palmer himself completed a re-design of the course in 2009. It is a par-72 (although down the years it has infrequently been a par-70) playing to a current yardage of 7,419. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are quick and a key feature of the week is the gusting and sometimes unpredictable Florida wind. The appearance of Tiger Woods will be a huge focus for the media and fans. Can he recreate his dominance of the past? Last year’s tournament witnessed a Rory McIlroy final round masterclass, as he thrashed a 64 to overhaul a three-shot deficit. It seemed the perfect preparation for the year head and yet he hasn’t won since.
Angles to consider
1/ Florida Form McIlroy played a lot of golf in Florida as a kid and has always been comfortable there, racking up plenty of top tens (and a Honda Classic win) ahead of last year’s triumph. He’s one of many champions here who’ve excelled in the Sunshine State. Every was a shock double winner, but had a good track record in the state. So, too, did other surprise (or minor surprise) winners Martin Laird, Chad Campbell and Kenny Perry.
2/ Form on Bermuda grass Every’s second win was out of nowhere (his form was dire), but ahead of the first he’d notched five quickfire top 25s on Bermuda greens, Jason Day (in 2016) had been solid, Marc Leishman had been churning out the top 30s and Rory McIlroy had two top threes in the Middle East.
3/ Hitting the greens at Bay Hill The year before his win here McIlroy had been third for Greens in Regulation, Leishman was first in that category 12 months before his success, Day had ranked second for GIR on the course and Kenny Perry’s course Ball-Striking numbers were superb ahead of his win.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Bryson DeChambeau His Bermuda form this season reads: T7th at Plantation, T10th at Waialae, winner at the Emirates and T6th at Royal Greens. He’s putted well in that period and only struggled when encountering the Poa Annua in Mexico. He was T27th on his Bay Hill debut in 2016 and second last year when, as the Player Stats database reveals, ranking sixth for GIR and first for Ball-Striking and Total Driving. He ranks second on the Course Form table, with only McIlroy ahead of him.
Charles Howell III When he likes a course, Howell III is very solid and so it is here: 16 cuts made in 18 starts. The concern is a career-best of T8th, but he knows how to hit the greens (ranked top seven six times, second last year), his last two visits to Florida have reaped top 20s, his last three Bermuda starts are all top 15 (including a win), and he arrives in form (T20th-T6th-T14th). He’s also topped the GIR stats in four of his last ten starts. A look at the Long Term Form table shows Woods, Rickie Fowler, McIlroy, Day, Rose and DeChambeau as the top six for six month stroke average, numbers reflected in the odds. But next up? It’s Howell III. He’s also sixth for eight week stroke average.
Adam Hadwin The Canadian was T36th on debut in 2016 and T6th in 2017, his only two tournament appearances. He has ranked fourth and sixth for GIR in those efforts, plus eighth and first for Ball-Striking. He was second in January’s Desert Classic (on Bermuda) and has four top 30s, including a win, in his last five Florida starts. He ranks fifth in the Course Form table.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 18/1 (Betfair SB, PaddyPower 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 46th 1pt e.w. Charles Howell III at 60/1 (Betfair SB, PaddyPower 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 15th 1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 100/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 33rd
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