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The Sentry Tournament of Champions is a no-cut, winners-only event which returns, as usual, to the undulating Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort on Maui, Hawaii. A total of 37 players were eligible to compete but Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose have decided to continue their winter breaks and give it a swerve. But there is still plenty of quality in the 34 who do go to post and the last four winners here – Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed - were current or future major winners. The last eight champions were all Americans but, prior to that, Australians had won five of the previous seven. Winds play a large part in the scoring although there are plenty of birdies to be had whatever the weather. The Last five winning scores: -24, -22, -30, -21, -19. The forecast this week suggests it will blow so getting those who can handle gusts seems a smart move. Defending champion Johnson heads the betting at 11/2 as he seeks to follow up his eight-shot win from 2018 and become the first back-to-back winner since Geoff Ogilvy in 2009/2010. Three stats to consider for this event Scrambling Putting Average Par 5 scoring 1/ Piercy a good fit on the stats The profile section this week lists the Stats Rankings of the Top-5 for each of the last five years. The four top Scramblers from 2018 – Brian Harman, Rickie Fowler, Si-Woo Kim and Jon Rahm – went on to finish 3rd, 4th, 10th and 2nd respectively so this was a key stat. It’s further highlighted by the 2014 (Zach Johnson), 2015 (Patrick Reed) and 2016 (Jordan Spieth) champions all ranking in the top three for Scrambling. Putting Average has been another key element, highlighting the fact that short game is so important at The Plantation. The Stat Form tables list Scrambling (SC) and Putting Average (PA) form over the last 8 weeks (back to October 28) and the only man to appear in the top six on both lists is Scott Piercy. The Las Vegas resident is third for Scrambling and sixth for Putting Average over the period and that helped him take T6 at Mayakoba and T10 at the Shriners. Prior to that he made the top five at the CJ Cup. He’s a former runner-up at the Sony Open and has two top 13 finishes from two starts in this event. 2/ Woodland can take advantage Cashing in on the four Par 5s at the Plantation Course is vital. Recent winners Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed both topped the Par 5 stats during the week of their wins, playing them in -16 and -13 respectively. Meanwhile, Jon Rahm shot 14-under on the Par 5s last year when finishing second while 2017 runner-up Hideki Matsuyama ranked T1 on the long holes. There’s not much to go on in the 2018/2019 campaign but Gary Woodland averages 4.41 over his 16 rounds to rank T14 while in 2017/18 the big hitter was T9 for Par 5 Scoring Average so we know he’s a proven and consistent performer on them. Woodland has had two knocks at the Plantation, finishing T24 in 2012 and improving to T13 in 2014. His last four visits to Hawaii show 3-13-6-7 in the Sony Open while his latest Putting Average stats are strong too (18th Shriners, 12th Mayakoba) 3/ Simpson is Rankings value The overall Ratings this week show the following top 6. 1/ Dustin Johnson 2/ Jason Day 3/ Bryson DeChambeau 4/ Webb Simpson 5/ Jon Rahm 6/ Justin Thomas In 2018, the top six in the ratings produced the winner, the runner-up and a T4 so proved excellent pointers: 1/ Rickie Fowler – T4th 2/ Brooks Koepka 34th 3/ Patrick Cantlay – T15th 4/ Jon Rahm – 2nd 5/ Jordan Spieth – 9th 6/ Dustin Johnson – 1st In 2017, top-ranked Hideki Matsuyama finished tied second and third-ranked Jordan Spieth in a tie for third. Winner Justin Thomas was seventh in the ratings. Looking at the odds this week, the one that stands out in this year’s top six is Webb Simpson. Johnson, Rahm and Thomas are all single-figure odds, DeChambeau is a general 12s and Day 14s. Simpson is 22s and that appeals given that he’s made the top three in two of his three starts here (2012 and 2014) and also boasts some strong Location form when adding in results at the other Hawaii event, next week’s Sony Open. Tips: 1-2; +1.25pts 1pt e.w. Scott Piercy at 80/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4) 19th 1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 22/1 (Bet365, Will Hill ¼ 1,2,3,4) 8th 1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 25/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4) 2nd
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