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No change in the multi-course narrative for the PGA Tour this week, but instead of the desert resort courses the players are presented with the challenge of cliff top golf.
Last week the views were of the craggy mountains in the distance, this week of the surf crashing into the rocks down below.
Phil Mickelson, who seemed set to open 2019 in sensational style with victory in last week’s Desert Classic before becoming an unlikely co-star in Adam Long’s breakout success, does not start, sacrificing a home town appearance to play further down the West Coast Swing and beyond.
The field plays the North and South Courses once each prior to the cut before the latter takes over for the weekend. It is a track watchers know well, comig to understand that hitting a long ball matters, but that ability to play in the wind is always going to help and might even prove crucial.
That said the forecast is for nothing more than light wind (but predictions for ocean top locations can be fickle so beware).
Jon Rahm heads the betting and there are multiple multiple tournament winners in the field (defending champion and double winner Jason Day, two-time champ Brandt Snedeker and seven-time top dog Tiger Woods).
Stats to consider
For all the talk of length (the South Course is 7,698-yards long) there is not one stat which winners or contenders consistently shine in. It may pay more to look for golfers who thrive on the coast in California.
1/ Snedeker loves the track
A 14th tournament visit to the course for the American and he’s certainly reaped plenty of reward, collecting two victories and another six top tens, two of them seconds, once third, plus a ninth in the 2008 US Open.
What is so persuasive about his record is that he’s excelled in all conditions, going low when it’s needed and grinding out the scores when the weather is filthy.
Not surprisingly all of this has him ranked eighth in the Course Form table and five of those ahead of him have played just the once or twice (not to be overlooked but a small sample size).
None of this would matter if his current form was terrible and yet there’s plenty of reason to like the way he’s playing.
His medium term form is very good: victory in the Wyndham Championship and play-off defeat in the Safeway Open.
And this year? T22-T16 in Hawaii, with promising rounds of 66-69-65-68 in Waialae.
2/ Noren can repeat
Twelve months ago it needed six play-off holes to separate Jason Day from Alex Noren, the last of those taking place on the Monday morning after darkness interrupted their little scrap.
Can the Swede return to go one better? We’ve seen such things before and this tournament in particular oftens witnesses players notch back-to-back quality performances.
In fact Day himself was second the year before his first win in 2015 and Scott Stallings was runner-up a year after winning in 2014.
Noren is mentally strong and just as pertinently last year he showed a real fondness for golf in this part of the world, adding T16th at Riviera in the Genesis Open to his effort here (his Scottish Open win at Castle Stuart ought not to be discounted either).
He ranked first in the Course Form1 table and whilst that is based solely on the one result he is also ranked fifth in the Ratings.
3/ Xander ratings value
Here is the top six in this week’s Ratings:
1. Jason Day
2. Jon Rahm
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Alex Noren
6. Marc Leishman
In a crowded head of the market, full of players in form, with strong track records and/or powerful reputations it can be difficult to get a grip on value.
But Xander Schauffele is rated seventh best in the field by the books and third in the ratings.
He won twice in his rookie campaign (one of them the Tour Championship), he’s performed brilliantly in the majors and the Players Championship, and he has two wins in his last three starts.
One of those was a WGC (the HSBC Champions), the other the Tournament of Champions.
There has to be a downside and there is: three missed cuts in three course appearances.
But it’s also provided a little leeway with the price and Schauffele has local connections.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 40/1 (PaddyPower 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 62nd 1pt e.w. Alex Noren at 40/1 (PaddyPower 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Xander Schauffele at 20/1 (MarathonBet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 25th
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