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For the 12th time, the Honda Classic takes place on the PGA National Champion Course at Palm Beach Gardens so there’s plenty of form to lean on this week. The tournament marks the start of the Florida Swing and focuses the mind further on the year’s opening major at Augusta National at the start of April. Indeed Masters winners and, in fact, all major winners have a good record in this event. Three of the last four champions – Justin Thomas, Adam Scott and Padraig Harrington – had all won majors before taking the title here, as had Rory McIlroy in 2012. While Thomas and Rickie Fowler (2017) have won the last two editions, overseas players have taken seven of the 11 editions. The other notable thing about the tournament is the scoring. This is a tough, tough week and five of the last six Honda Classics have been won with single digits under par. Weather-wise, there’s a threat of t-storms in the build-up and they could also play a part on Sunday. Winds are fairly modest for the first two rounds but could pick up on the weekend. Angles to consider 1/ Florida form After the Poa Annua of the West Coast, the move east means players will be putting on grainier Bermudagrass surfaces in Florida. Some players love it; others often struggle. There are numerous players with a local connection to Florida while the best Florida performers can be found on the Location form table. 2/ Driving Distance Despite being a very modest 7,140-yard par 70, it’s a course where Driving Distance counts. That really came to the fore last year when the top two in DD for the week – Justin Thomas and Luke List – went on to contest a play-off. Prior to that, the Driving Distance figures of the past four winners read 12th Rickie Fowler (2017), 7th Adam Scott (2016), 10th Padraig Harrington (2015) and 10th Russell Henley (2014). 3/ Scrambling With lots of wind, putting surfaces can be hard to hit, thus putting an emphasis on performance around the greens. Justin Thomas ranked 1st for Scrambling last year and the last five winners have ranked in the top 10 for that category. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Lucas Glover Glover is a major winner, who can give it a thump so immediately goes on the shorlist. He was ranked first for Scrambling in the Desert Classic when placed tied 10th and last time out we saw him finish tied seventh at Pebble Beach. Outside the top 27 just once in his last nine PGA Tour starts, the 2009 US Open champ was fourth at this event in 2013 and has made the top 25 for each of the last two years. In 2017 he was in the top seven in both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship so boasts Florida form too. Luke List List came mighty close to his first PGA Tour win in this event last year, eventually being beaten by Justin Thomas at the first extra hole. List is one of the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour and has put that to good use on this course, also finishing tied 10th in 2016. That’s not his only good form in Florida either as he took tied seventh at Bay Hill last year, a week after tied 16th in the Valspar Championship. He returns to PGA National on the back of tied 15th in the Genesis Open so the signs look good. Trey Mullinax The best outsider in the field this week could be Mullinax. He’s one of the few who in the field who shows up strongly in both recent Driving Distance and Scrambling stats. Those two qualities have helped the 26-year-old from Alabama (neighbouring state to Florida) to a series of solid performances – T25 Farmers Insurance Open, T15 Waste Management Phoenix Open and T22 Pebble Beach. He missed the cut on his only start here two years ago but posted T8 in tough conditions in another Florida event in 2018, the Valspar Championship. Tips 1-2; +8.20pts 1pt e.w. Lucas Glover at 66/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 4th 1pt e.w. Luke List at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 1pt e.w. Trey Mullinax at 125/1 (Unibet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) 51st
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