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Just last week the Sky Sports commentary team were telling us the power of a victory to the confidence of a player. It would be foolish to suggest that plenty of golfers are not boosted in such a manner, but it is also rather naive to assume it always happens. Not just naive, in fact, but flying in the face of plenty of evidence. Take this week’s defending champion Michael Kim, for example. He made five cuts in the ten starts after he won last July and didn’t make one top 30. He probably thought that was bad – little did he know. Since then he has teed it up in 18 tournaments and not made the weekend in one of them. He’s gone sub-70 just twice in round one through that spell and he hasn’t completed a round in the 60s in his second lap since February. Winning by eight shots (his margin of victory last year)? It must seem decades ago. He changed coach the month before and called the win his honeymoon period, he’s yet to assign a name to what’s followed. TPC Deere Run is a par-71 with bent grass greens and a requirement to go low, but perhaps the biggest factor to bear in mind is the undulating terrain. Players have to hit shots from elevated positions and also to them. It’s a part of the game plenty of modern day golfers struggle with, but plenty also thrive on the challenge. “If you look at the past champions, the players that have done really well here,” Kim said at the media day, “Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Ryan Moore, Brian Harman – those guys don't hit it a crazy distance. It's more about just getting it in play and then let your wedges and putting do most of the work.” Angles to consider 1/ Course form Winners can come from nowhere in this event. Bryson DeChambeau had only a missed cut in his record book and Michael Kim T47th and T71st. But Steve Stricker won three times on the trot, Jordan Spieth is a two-time winner, Zach Johnson loves the place and Brian Harman, Kenny Perry and Ryan Moore all flagged up their fondness for the test. 2/ Greens in Regulation It’s not a definite, but it can matter. Of the last five winners Ryan Moore and Brian Harman ranked first, Michael Kim ranked third, Bryson DeChambeau 11th and Jordan Spieth 33rd. 3/ Par 3 Performance Not a number that often shows up, but of those last five winners Bryson DeChambeau, Brian Harman, Ryan Moore and Michael Kim ranked top seven, Jordan Spieth was 17th. 4/ Innisbrook TPC Deere Run is undulating and so, too, is Innisbrook which hosts the Valspar Championship. Of the last ten winners of this week’s event nine played the Valspar, five finished top ten, two others top 30.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jason Kokrak The 34-year-old has played here twice and missed the cut both times, but all else is strong. He finished T2 at Innisbrook, ranks tenth in the field for both Par 3 Performance and Greens in Regulation and he’s missed just one cut in 25 starts. Joaquin Nieman The gun 20-year-old out of Chile played this event for the first time last season and completed four sub-70 laps including a 65 to close for T23rd. He ranks 21st for Greens in Regulation in this field and is on a neat run: T5th at both the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage then T23rd last week despite an opening 73 leaving him T119th on Thursday evening. Zach Johnson T24th at Innisbrook and signs of life in his most recently seen form (T35th at the Canadian Open despite a poor round one and he then made the cut at the US Open). He had a best finish of T20th in his first seven visits here, then he’s pegged seven top fives in his last ten appearances including a win in 2012. In those last ten years his Par 3 Performance has been excellent and he has better GIR numbers here than elsewhere.
Tips: 0-2; -4.00pts 1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak at 50/1 (William Hill SB 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) dns 1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 28/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 10th 1pt e.w. Zach Johnson at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 37th
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