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A 13th visit to El Camaleon Golf for the Mayakoba Classic, an event that has proved popular with the players because the resort surroundings are terrific. The course is a par-71 playing to 7,017-yards and the keys characteristics are Paspalum grass on the greens (somewhat similar to Bermuda, certainly more so than bent grass), tricky to find fairways (they sneak through mangroves), high humidity and a blustery wind (which whips across the nearby ocean). As such, and as discussed in more detail below, the winners have tended to fit a pattern, being, more often than not, experts in these circumstances. The week will feature two notable returns. The first is that of the defending champion, Matt Kuchar, whose success here kickstarted a fine period of form (he would add victory in the Sony Open and second place in the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play) and with it, also, came controversy after it was discovered he paid his local caddie a rather miserable fee when claiming the win. A rather more welcome return is that of Chris Kirk, who has been undergoing treatment for alcohol addiction and will play for the first time since the end of April. Something of a fast starter, with a fondness for doing so on Bermuda and Bermuda-like greens, it would be nice if he enjoyed a bold Thursday – indeed he held the first round lead here in 2016. Angles to consider 1/ Form on similar tracks Last year’s winner Matt Kuchar had won in Fiji and at Harbour Town, he would go on to win at Waialae. He is far from the only winner here to have thrived on other tracks by the sea, on Bermuda (or Bermuda-like) greens, with tight tee shots a common theme. Patton Kizzire (2017) had been second in Mexico and would also win at Waialae, Graeme McDowell (2015) had won at Harbour Town and would add a win in the Dominican Republic, Harris English (2013) had won at Southwind, Johnson Wagner (2011) would win at Waialae, as would Mark Wilson (2009). Brian Gay (2008) would win at Harbour Town and Southwind. 2/ Par 4 Performance Of the last five winners, three (Kuchar, Kizzire and Charley Hoffman in 2014) ranked first in this category, Pat Perez in 2016 was second and McDowell was seventh. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Harris English The 30-year-old first proved himself in these conditions with victory in the 2013 St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind and then confirmed it’s a good pointer by claiming the win here the same year. He’s since been third in the Sony Open at Waialae. He’s also had his injury and form woes, but he arrives here in great nick having closed last season with fourth at The Old White and opened this campaign with sixth at Jackson, 33rd at Silverado and fourth last time out at Houston. Ranks 24th in the field for par-4s. Fabian Gomez It’s a case this week of really liking one pick (English) and then playing a couple of big prices. First up is the Argentine whose course form is far from perfect. In fact he has a best of 23rd from five efforts. He can play here though, notching a 66 and a 67 in 2014 and a round one 66 in 2017 to lie tied fifth on Thursday night. More compelling are his wins at Southwind and Waialae in 2015 and 2016. Nor is he without form. He landed tied seventh in Bermuda last time out and a short time ago was second in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. Ranks 20th in the field for par-4s. Harry Higgs In the modern world a 27-year-old rookie who did little with his first three years as a pro (2015 through 2017) is something of an oddball underachiever. But the last three years have seen him rise in formidable fashion. He won the 2018 LatinoAmerica Tour, collecting vital experience in conditions like this week. He then backed that up with graduation from the Korn Ferry Tour and when last seen he was finishing second in Bermuda. The final tick is that he ranks first in the field on the Par-4s. Tips:
1-2; +9.00pts 1.5pts e.w. Harris English at 45/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
5th 0.75pt e.w. Fabian Gomez at 125/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
mc 0.75pt e.w. Harry Higgs at 90/1 (PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
33rd
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