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Those with long memories will recall that this week’s PGA Tour event was once a relatively straightforward affair when looking at course form since it resided at Westchester Country Club from 1967 to 2007. It went through plenty of sponsors and name changes in that time, but in recent years it became first The Barclays and now The Northern Trust and with that has come a dizzying circuit of various New York and New Jersey layouts. It has, however, been to this week’s venue, Liberty National Golf Club, twice before with Heath Slocum winning in 2009 and Adam Scott in 2013. The track has been built on an old refuse site and was designed by Bob Cupp and Tom Kite in 2006. On the first visit ten years ago many in the field thought little of it, but there was a lot of feedback and it helped improve opinions. A par-71 at just under 7,400 yards it is one of the many new tracks in the States which claims to be linksland influenced. As is often the case with such courses, a pinch of salt is always useful when such words are uttered – the land might be shaped that way, but the grass is not going to help anyone play run-up or greenside shots in true links fashion (nor do the enormous white sand bunkers remind anyone of the Scottish or Irish coast). It’s a tough track. In 2009 it was the eighth hardest on the schedule, although 22nd four years later. Charl Schwartzel said: “I like the way it always challenges you, there’s always a little bit of wind. The greens have got a lot of contours, so you got to be accurate with your irons, you got to leave the ball in the right places, so it always makes you think. It’s not just a straightforward course where you can hit it and you’re going to be fine. You got to think around it.” Phil Mickelson referenced Augusta National and Webb Simpson Donald Ross courses – the reason being the greens are very contoured. Remember also that this is the first of the FedEx Cup Play-Offs. 122 players tee it up (three have opted not to) and only the top 70 in the rankings will move on to next week.
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green We have no Strokes gained stats for 2009, but in 2013 it was clear that the long game mattered more than work on the greens. Winner Adam Scott ranked second for SG: Tee to Green and the four men who shared second ranked 13th, first, ninth and seventh (none ranked better than 16th for SG: Putting). 2/ Current Form Winners of the first FedEx Cup Play-Off have tended to be in good nick. Bryson DeChambeau had kicked off his summer with a win at the Memorial, Dustin Johnson collected his fourth win of the season, Patrick Reed had made five top 20s in six starts, Jason Day had two recent wins, Adam Scott had top fives in the last two majors. 3/ Quality In addition to good form winners of this first Play-Off tend to be high quality. Five of the last six ranked top 25 in the world and all of them top 50. Those outside such parameters may have their eyes on too many goals.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas He ranks second for SG: Tee to Green, ninth in the world and his last three starts have all been T12th or better. What’s more he finally started recording some decent putting numbers last time out at the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational. It’s been a long time coming, but if he can hole some putts as well as flush it he’ll be a danger. Patrick Cantlay The American is another stellar tee to green man – he ranks third. He’s a winner this season (the Memorial) and has impressed everyone this season in both WGC and majors. Teed it up twice in this event (but not course) and earned a top ten both times. Ranked tenth in the world. Webb Simpson The world number 13 and he’s flying on form, collecting second in both the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational and the Wyndham Championship. Says he likes the greens here because they remind him of Donald Ross putting surfaces. Has finished T8 and T15 on the course.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Justin Thomas at 20/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair SB 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 12th 1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 22/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair SB 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 12th 1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 25/1 (PaddyPower, Betfair SB 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 18th
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