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After a brief zig-zag inland the West Coast Swing returns to the Californian coast and one of golf’s most storied locations.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am features three golf courses, two fields and close to seven hour rounds, but the frustrations of the latter are somewhat alleviated by the majestic views.
The three courses are the famous Pebble Beach (par 72, 6,816 yards, also host for the final round), Spyglass Hill (par 72, 6,953 yards) and Monterey Peninsula (par 72, 6,958 yards). All three layouts feature poa annua grass on the greens.
Jimmy Walker won with 12-under in 2014, but eight of the last nine champions finished the week in the 17- to 22-under range (weather is an obvious factor to consider).
There have been four multiple winners of this tournament in the 21st century. In addition to which Jimmy Walker, Arron Oberholser and Jordan Spieth had strong event records. But last year’s winner Ted Potter Jr and Vaughn Taylor in 2016 were shocks.
An intriguing side issue this February is that Pebble Beach will also host this year’s U.S. Open in June.
The conditions will be very different, but Tiger Woods completed the Pebble double in 2000 and Dustin Johnson really should have done so in 2010 (he led by three after 54 holes of the major).
A storm swept through the property last week. Reports indicate that the only damage was to temporary structures, but it’s worth keeping an eye on updates. Angles to consider 1/ Finding greens matters
Landing plenty of the putting surfaces is rewarded, which makes sense on tracks which have small (often very small) greens and where the wind blows. The Greens in Regulation rankings of the last five winners reads: Potter 9th, Spieth 3rd, Taylor 2nd, Brandt Snedeker 3rd, Walker 6th. 2/ Par 4s are key
Performance on the mid-distance holes are vital. Of those last five winners Spieth and Snedeker ranked 1st, Potter, Taylor and Walker 2nd for the week. 3/ Americans who’ve hinted at course form dominate
Potter Jr’s win last year might have been a surprise (a first PGA Tour top five in six years, a first top five on any tour in five months and straight off an 82 to close at Torrey Pines), but he was the 14th American winner in a row. Also each of the last ten winners (even Potter Jr, Taylor, and DA Points in 2011) had recorded a top 20 finish in the event.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Patrick Cantlay
The Course Compatibility 1 table shows Cantlay ranking fourth for Greens in Regulation among the field, Course Compatibility 2 shows him fifth for Par-4 Scoring, he’s American and back in 2013 he finished T9th on his tournament debut. A nice combination and he’s also fourth in the Ratings. A strong case and yet he’s outside the top ten in the betting. He missed the cut at Torrey Pines but before that was on a run of 7-2-9. Branden Grace
Clearly not an American but he’s got plenty else in his favour. The Stat Form table shows him featuring highly for Greens in Regulation and a search of his numbers in Player Stats for Pebble Beach shows he ranked second for that category in his tournament debut last year (when he clocked up T20th). A search in the same database for current form shows last week’s total of 72.2% for GIR was his lowest in four outings. In other words he’s striking the ball well. And searching his wins you find victory in a multi-course Pro-Am (the Dunhill Links) and at blustery Harbour Town. Jason Kokrak
The Stat Form table shows him ranked tenth for Greens in Regulation. He’s a two-time top 20 finisher in the tournament (best of T9 in 2012) and he was just one shot from making it three in 2017. Three times he has ranked seventh or better for Greens in Regulation in the tournament (he was first in 2012). He’s also an American and arrives fresh from three top 20s. Tips:
0-2; -4.00pts
1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 33/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
21st 1pt e.w. Branden Grace at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
mc 1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak at 66/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
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