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After two weeks in Hawaii and another two in California, the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing visits Arizona. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is known for being the noisiest and most well-attended event on the PGA Tour (usually around half-a-million) and perhaps it’s why some players love it, others struggle with the cat-calls and some just stay away. The iconic hole is the par-3 16th which is surrounded by a 20,000 grandstand. Tiger Woods once made a hole-in-one here and nearly caused an earthquake such was the reaction. Phil Mickelson won the event with a crazy 28-under in 2013 but the course, TPC Scottsdale, underwent a renovation before the 2015 event. Winning scores since have been a more reasonable -15, -14, -17 and -18, the last three editions all going to play-offs. The layout is set in the desert and is a par 71 measuring 7,261 yards. The greens are Bermuda and usually run fast. American players have won 16 of the last 20, their dominance only being broken by three Internationals – Vijay Singh, Aaron Baddeley and Hideki Matsuyama (twice). To find a European winner, you need to go back to Jesper Parnevik in 1998. For a GB and Ireland player, the search extends all the way back to Sandy Lyle in 1988. Angles to consider 1/ Greens in Regulation is key GIR rankings for the last four winners? Gary Woodland 4th, Hideki Matsuyama 2nd, Hideki Matsuyama 1st, Brooks Koepka 4th. It’s definitely the standout stat in recent years. Looking at the GIR figures in the Stat Form charts is a useful tool here and, of course, we see weekly GIR rankings for each player when clicking on their individual names. 2/ Par 4 Stats While the Par-3 16th gets all the attention, the Par 4s at TPC Scottsdale are where the tournament is won and lost. Last year’s winner Gary Woodland ranked 4th on the Par 4s while in 2015 and 2016, winners Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama both topped that category. 3/ Course form This is definitely one of those horses-for-courses tracks. Hideki Matsuyama won the trophy back-to-back in 2016 and 2017, J.B. Holmes hoisted the trophy twice in three years (2006 and 2008) while Phil Mickelson took victory for a third time in 2013. Rickie Fowler and Bubba Watson are both two-time runners-up. A look at the colour coding on the Course Form 1 table shows just how many players have repeat or multiple top 10s. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Phil Mickelson Mickelson hit 81.9% of greens in regulation when finishing runner-up in the Desert Classic two weeks ago so really did have his irons dialled in. He’s also a great course form fit having won here three times and although two of those were a long time ago (1996 and 2005), he’s kept the hot form going in recent times with a top five last year as well as T16 in 2017 and T11 in 2016. Phil went to college here, the crowd loves him and he looks in good shape to excel again. Webb Simpson Mickelson also happens to rank 1st in the PGA Tour’s Par 4 Scoring Average table. At third on that list is Webb Simpson, who also shows up in third place on the overall Tour-Tips rankings. He looks a good fit in theory and the reality supports it. From 2011 to 2017, the American’s form at TPC Scottsdale reads: 8-8-10-14-2. He’s started the year off with T8 in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and has four top eights in his last five PGA Tour starts. Matt Kuchar Kooch is already a two-time winner this season so is confidence is through the roof. He certainly has what we’re looking for this week. The American is ranked tied 6th in Par 4 Scoring Average this season, he ranked 1st for GIR when winning the Sony Open and his last two starts at TPC Scottsdale show T5 in 2018 and T9 the year before. He’s ticking every stats box so has to be part of the staking plan at a reasonable 28/1. Tips 1-2; +0.60pts 1pt e.w. Phil Mickelson at 28/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 22/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 20th 1pt e.w. Matt Kuchar at 28/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 4th
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