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The Players Championship at Sawgrass can be a tough nut to crack for punters given the different types of players that have won at Pete Dye’s famed Florida track. As opposed to somewhere like Augusta National where the same names will crop up year on year, Sawgrass form can be all over the place. Take Rory McIlroy. Three missed cuts to start, a run of 8-6-8-12 from 2013 to 2016 and then T35 and MC the last two. Rickie Fowler takes it to even further extremes. His course form? MC-MC-2-MC-MC-1-MC-60-MC. With $12.5m to play for and $2.25m for the winner, at least we know everyone will be giving it everything and there’s an added angle for this year’s renewal on the 7,189-yard par 72. From 2007 to 2018 the tournament was played in May but this year it returns to its former March slot. Florida in March is normally windier and the overseeding of the greens is likely to produce more green and lush conditions. Looking at winners in the last 12 years, we’ve had five Americans, three Europeans, two South Koreans, a South African and an Aussie. In the March slot, eight of the previous 12 winners were home United States players. Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 performance Although Sawgrass has four Par 5s, it’s performance on the Par 4s that has identified recent winners. Webb Simpson was ranked 1st in Par 4s (-8) last year while the champions in both 2016 (Jason Day) and 2017 (Si Woo Kim) also topped the Par 4s for the week with -7 and -9 respectively. 2/ All-Around It’s often said that you have to do everything well to shine at TPC Sawgrass and that’s borne out by the stats. Webb Simpson ranked third on the All-Around last year and that continued an extremely strong trend. Overall, eight of the last 10 winners ended the week in the top three for AA and the ‘worst’ performance in that category was ninth. 3/ Florida form We’re in the Sunshine State for the third week running and performance in this part of the world is a great pointer. While Sawgrass is a unique test, it has Bermuda greens and plenty of water in play typical of other venues in this corner of the U.S. Last week’s Bay Hill winner Francesco Molinari had posted four top 10s in his previous seven starts in Florida while 2018 Players winner Webb Simpson had finished eighth and fifth in his last two appearances in the Sunshine State. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Brooks Koepka Koepka missed the cut at Bay Hill last week but his previous form in Florida prior to that was 2-11-16. That second place came just a fortnight ago when he finished runner-up in the Honda Classic while the 11th and 16th were both at TPC Sawgrass, a course where he’s getting better and better, a point the three-time major winner proved with a closing 63 here last time. Koepka is 14th on the All-Around stats this season (1st at Honda) and 29th in Par 4 Scoring Average. Xander Schauffele It takes most players a few circuits of TPC Sawgrass to discover its nuances but Schauffele is a fast learner and he showed it here last year when runner-up. The American Ranks 2nd on the All-Around rankings this year and is 11th in Par 4 Scoring Average so appears to tick the boxes we’re looking for here. Paul Casey The Englishman hasn’t always had a great relationship with Sawgrass but he’s made the top 25 on his last two visits and also has a 10th and a 14th. A winner at the Valspar Championship on his last start in Florida, his latest seven starts in the Sunshine State show that victory, two top 10s, T11 and two other top 25s. He’s ranked 10th on the All-Around this season and was 1st for AA at Pebble Beach and 4th at the WGC-Mexico. Also 17th in Par 4 scoring, Casey has a nice mix for success. Selections 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Brooks Koepka at 25/1 (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 56th 1pt e.w. Xander Schauffele at 30/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 1pt e.w. Paul Casey at 50/1 (bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc
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