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This tournament last year gave us a hint of what would become a theme of the season – and yet at the same time it proved something of a false dawn. The winner was Cameron Champ, one of five first time winners of the event on this course in Mississippi, and his huge length from the tee and stellar putting was immediately thrust into the limelight. Much was expected of him and initially he backed it up with four top 30s straight after, including 11th at the Tournament of Champions, but he has managed just two top 30s since and not one top 20. That has not stopped the on-rush of bright young talent, often with the capacity to send the ball huge distances. Champ was a front runner for the likes of Matthew Wolff, Viktor Hovland and Collins Morikawa. The course was designed in the early 1960s by Dick Wilson (Bay Hill, Doral, Cog Hill, La Costa) and it plays to a par-72 at 7,421 yards with Bermuda grass on the greens. Last year Bill Haas said of the layout: “The course is fantastic. I had a lot of success Annandale (the previous venue), so personally I miss that place. We're lucky to have a nice course like this, though, and I think it is more challenging. I think you have to drive the ball very well. Somewhat narrow fairways and certainly some trouble.”
Angles to consider 1/ Putting Average The six winners at this venue have had hot flat sticks. Last year Cameron Champ ranked first for Putting Average, Ryan Armour was second, Cody Gribble first, Peter Malnati second and Nick Taylor sixth. 2/ Par 3 Performance Of course it is rather straightforwardly obvious that the winners have good hole averages, but that said excelling on the shorter holes doesn’t happen as often as you might expect. Champ was second on the Par 3s during his win, Armour third, Gribble seventh, Malnati eighth and Taylor second. 3/ Form Their recent form might not have been stand out necessarily, but the winners have tended to have thrived in recent times. Champ had enjoyed a summer hot spell on the Web.com, Armour had a good end to the PGA season and transferred it to the Web.com Finals, Gribble has two top tens ahead of the win. 4/ First time winners As noted, the five course winners have been fresh to success at PGA Tour level.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Denny McCarthy The 26-year-old from Maryland missed the cut in this event during his first crack at the PGA Tour in late 2017, but after a return to the second tier finals he improved to seventh this time last year. Last week he carded a 61 in round two to signal some decent form, he also ended 2018-19 with plenty of good rounds, and five out of six cuts made. Ranks third in the field for Putting Average and Par 3 Performance and has won on Bermuda. Patton Kizzire Thee 33-year-old comes from Alabama, the state next door to Mississippi and perhaps that explains his fondness for the track? He was fourth in 2015 and then tenth in 2017. His two PGA Tour wins have come on Bermuda grass and so was his 13th three starts ago in the Wyndham. It’s definitely the grass he seems to prefer. Ranks tenth for Putting Average in the field and 24th for Par 3 Performance. Mark Hubbard Back on the PGA Tour after two season on the second tier and started the season with a career-best at the top level of tenth last week at the Greenbrier. A winner on Bermuda grass in February, he has shown up in the top ten at the end of rounds all season and closed the regular Korn Ferry Tour campaign with fourth ahead of last week’s effort. Topped the second tier’s Par 3 Stroke Average and was 13th for Putting.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 18th 1pt e.w. Patton Kizzire at 125/1 (Unibet, Betfred, Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 1pt e.w. Mark Hubbard at 150/1 (Betfred, Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc
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